Why is everyone talking about Israel-Somaliland ties?

Rumours travel fast, especially when they are interesting, and in recent weeks a flurry of articles has emerged claiming that Israel seeks to develop ties with Somaliland in order to establish a secure location for a military base along the Red Sea. Most of the stories lack credible sources and often reference one another rather than officials from the Somaliland or Israeli governments. However, this has not hindered their spread from smaller and less widely read outlets like Emirati Leaks or Middle East Monitor (MEMO), to larger circulation mainstream newspapers like Haaretz.  

The current wave of speculation on this topic likely originates from a report by the Emirati Leaks website, which published an exclusive story claiming that the UAE would fund an Israeli military base in Somaliland. The article cited entirely anonymous diplomatic sources, stating: “the UAE has covertly proposed establishing a military and intelligence base for Israel in Somaliland, with Abu Dhabi providing full financial backing.” In return, the article claims that Tel Aviv would recognise Somaliland’s independence from Somalia. It is unclear what the UAE would gain directly from this arrangement, but the article also incorrectly states that the UAE recognises Somaliland’s independence—a significant red flag, as Somaliland as yet remains unrecognised.  

From there, the report spread like a California wildfire, with some websites repeating the claims made by Emirati Leaks without further scrutiny, while others used it as a springboard for speculative analysis. Middle East Monitor was one of the early takers. Ahmet Vefa Rende, a Turkish graduate student, wrote an article examining what Israel might gain from a relationship with Somaliland. “Lacking geopolitical strategic depth, Israel feels the need to base itself in Somaliland in order to initiate its national security from miles away and challenge the Houthi presence in Yemen,” Rende wrote. Shortly afterwards, The Jerusalem Post, an Israeli website, published a news report based on what it claimed was contained in the MEMO article. However, it was definitely not a news report, which angered sections of Somali Twitter due to the way The Jerusalem Post misrepresented Rende’s argument. Safia Aideed, a historian and professor at the University of Toronto posted: the “report” they base the entire article on is an op-ed by a PhD student, which does not have a single source to substantiate the author’s claims.” Addis Standard, a respected east African newspaper, also shared The Jerusalem Post article on its Twitter account without verifying the accuracy of the report.

Quds News Network, a Palestinian news agency, then published a tweet, regurgitating the Emirati Leaks report followed by MintPress News, which didn’t attribute the report to unnamed diplomatic sources and also mentioned alleged Emirati pressure on Somalia for a “mutual cooperation agreement”. The Visegrád 24 social media account also shared a post related to this. Laura Cellier, a host at the Israeli TV station I24 quote tweeted Visegrád 24, adding: “Somaliland is a secular, democratic territory which has longed deserved international recognition”. Several prominent Somalis blasted Cellier. Najat Abdi, a Somali-Australian academic posted: “I can assure you the rest of the Horn of Africa will escalate into war (along with Yemen), if this ever happens.” Sagal Ashour also reacted, telling Cellier that “we are 99.9% muslims, we support a free Palestine and we hope the whole Israeli government is arrested and brought to justice for the genocide against the Palestinian people.”  

Perhaps the most significant place the story appeared was on the website of the Israeli liberal newspaper Haaretz. Nadan Feldman authored the article, exploring why Somaliland had become the focus of so much Israeli and Middle Eastern media attention. Like the The Jerusalem Post article, Feldman said Ahmet Vefa Rende “first reported” contacts between Hargeisa and Tel Aviv, when he didn’t. It also made a glaring error, claiming that Somaliland is ruled by the “Muslim Issa clan”, when the Isaaq constitute the largest clan in Somaliland. A simple Google search would reveal that.  

Martin Plaut, a well-known regional expert also shared the Haaretz story on X, provoking another fierce backlash by Safia Aideed: “leave Somaliland OUT of zionist propaganda.”  

Feldman focused his analysis on the escalating conflict in the Middle East and what advantages Israel would gain from ties with Somaliland in light of Houthi attacks on American and Israeli ships. It also attempts to draw a bizarre parallel between Somaliland and Israel:  

“It may be said that Israel and Somaliland are similar in two essential ways: They are both small,  vulnerable democracies, situated in areas rife with authoritarian regimes and murderous wars. Also, both are suffering from sovereignty issues vis-à-vis the international community, and both have enemies that seek to destroy them.”

Israel however is an expansionist occupying power, accused by several NGOs of practising apartheid and currently under investigation for genocide by the ICJ. It doesn’t have as much in common with Somaliland as Feldman would like you to believe. These types of stories have a longer history however. Dutch writer Michael Arizanti, known for his ties to Gulf states and Israel, made an argument in the Times of Israel in July that Israel should invest in and develop ties with Somaliland.  

These reports and articles have proliferated without any attempt by either Hargeisa or Tel Aviv to correct them, which has contributed to the speculation. Though the likelihood that Somaliland would invest in ties appears quite low, despite the incentives. President Muse Bihi Abdi, whose term is due to end following his election defeat, said: “As Somalilanders, we stand in solidarity with Palestine and support them with our hearts and minds.” This position is shared by the majority of the Somaliland public, and the government would likely have to overcome significant public opposition to pursue the establishment of an Israeli base on the Gulf of Aden. Such a move could also draw the country into broader regional conflicts, potentially undermining its security if the Houthis were to target the base.