Who shall bear the guilt?

For some time now, tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia have been steadily escalating, with both governments trading accusations over the source of the growing rift. Ethiopian authorities have accused Eritrea of violating Ethiopia’s sovereignty, encroaching on its territory, and providing support to armed militias operating in the Amhara region. Addis Ababa has also alleged that Asmara has been working with elements of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) leadership to foment renewed conflict against the Ethiopian state. Eritrea has firmly rejected these claims, denying any involvement in “destabilizing activities” inside Ethiopia.

Eritrean officials, in turn, have accused the Ethiopian leadership of seeking access to the Red Sea by force, arguing that Ethiopia’s ambitions for sea access lie at the heart of the current tensions between the two neighbors. Asmara maintains that it views these demands as a direct threat to Eritrea’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and insists that it has no role in arming or supporting opposition forces within Ethiopia.

Speaking before Ethiopia’s House of Peoples’ Representatives on Tuesday, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for the first time publicly traced the origins of the friction between Addis Ababa and Asmara. He dismissed claims that the dispute arose due to Ethiopia raising the issue of Red Sea access. “Some people argue, think, and analyze that the problem between the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments arose because the Ethiopian government raised the Red Sea question. This is not the case,” Abiy said. Instead, the prime minister linked the breakdown in relations to events during the early stages of the war in Tigray. He stated that after Ethiopian forces regained control of Shire during the first phase of the conflict, Eritrean troops entered the town and began destroying private homes and buildings. “That is when the friction started, though we did not speak of it at the time,” Abiy added.

Eritrea’s Minister of Information, Yemane G. Meskel, strongly criticized Ethiopia’s ruling Prosperity Party following Abiy’s remarks. He accused the Ethiopian leadership of deception and of laying the groundwork for a renewed conflict with Eritrea under the guise of seeking access to the Red Sea.

Yemane noted that during and after the 2020–2022 war, the Prosperity Party leadership had publicly praised the Eritrean army and even awarded state medals to Eritrean military officials. According to him, the recent statements by Ethiopian leaders contradict those earlier positions and are intended to “camouflage and rationalize” what he described as a new war agenda against Eritrea.

The Eritrean minister also pointed to Abiy’s reference to the Golan Heights in his remarks, arguing that the analogy revealed an “illicit” attempt to justify potential military action against Eritrea framed around claims of “sovereign access to the sea.”

While both governments deny responsibility for destabilization, extensive international investigations have implicated both the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) and the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) in mass violence, atrocities, and looting during the Tigray conflict.

Multiple human rights investigations concluded that the EDF played a central role in widespread atrocities. Reports by Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and the UN Commission of Human Rights Experts documented patterns of deliberate violence against civilians, including mass executions, indiscriminate shelling of towns, and targeted killings of men suspected of supporting the TPLF. These findings indicate that the abuses were not isolated incidents but part of a coordinated campaign aimed at terrorizing communities.

Sexual violence emerged as one of the most devastating aspects of Eritrean involvement in Tigray. Survivors reported being subjected to gang rape, sexual slavery, and mutilation by EDF soldiers. Some women were detained for weeks and repeatedly assaulted, while others were raped in front of family members to maximize humiliation.

The UN Commission concluded that these acts were systematic and widespread, amounting to war crimes and possibly crimes against humanity. Testimonies indicate that sexual violence was deliberately used as a weapon of war to fracture the social fabric of Tigrayan communities.

Looting was another defining feature of Eritrean operations in Tigray. Reports documented EDF soldiers stripping hospitals, schools, and factories of equipment, crippling essential services. Agricultural resources, including grain stores and livestock, were seized, worsening famine conditions.

A 2025 investigation by The Sentry found evidence of industrial-scale theft orchestrated by Eritrean leaders, including the extraction of gold, antiquities, and other valuables. According to the report, this organized plunder was aimed at enriching Eritrean elites and financing military operations rather than being the result of indiscipline on the battlefield.

Beyond physical looting, evidence suggests Eritrean forces engaged in cross-border trafficking networks involving stolen goods and, in some cases, people. Analysts argue that this systematic economic destruction was intended to dismantle Tigray’s economic base and undermine its long-term recovery and autonomy.

International organizations and independent institutes have also documented serious abuses committed by Ethiopian forces. Reports indicate that ENDF troops were responsible for mass killings of civilians in towns such as Aksum and other parts of Tigray. Survivors described soldiers executing men accused of supporting the TPLF and using indiscriminate shelling that destroyed homes and public spaces.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed later acknowledged that massacres occurred in Aksum, reversing earlier denials. These admissions align with long-standing allegations that hundreds of civilians were killed over two days in late November 2020.

A 2024 report by the New Lines Institute concluded that there is strong evidence Ethiopian forces committed genocidal acts during the conflict. The report argued that Ethiopia and its allies, including Amhara Special Forces and Eritrean troops, demonstrated intent to destroy Tigrayans as an ethnic group through killings, forced displacement, and destruction of livelihoods. It called for Ethiopia to be brought before the International Court of Justice.

Human rights groups further documented widespread destruction of schools, hospitals, and food supplies by ENDF forces, exacerbating famine conditions. These actions were described as part of a deliberate strategy to break Tigrayan resistance and dismantle the region’s capacity for survival.

Although Addis Ababa and Asmara were close allies against the TPLF during the war, tensions began to surface after the Pretoria Agreement ended the conflict. Prime Minister Abiy’s decision to strike a deal with the TPLF deeply frustrated Eritrea, which felt sidelined by the peace process. This move was widely believed to mark a turning point, gradually straining relations between Abiy and President Isaias. Since then, ties between the two governments have continued to deteriorate. Ethiopia has increasingly emphasized its need for direct access to the sea, a demand that Eritrea perceives as a potential threat to its sovereignty. There has also been reports alleging that Asmara has provided support and arms to Amhara militias, who are now engaged in active conflict with the Ethiopian federal government. Abiy’s latest remarks appear to place the alleged atrocities squarely on Isaias’s shoulders, a charge that Asmara vehemently denies. What is not in dispute is that mass violence and atrocities have taken place in Tigray. Who bears ultimate responsibility, however, remains unanswered, as does the impact this shifting blame and escalating rhetoric may have on relations between the two countries.