Is war imminent in Tigray?

In a recent opinion piece, two senior Ethiopian officials raised alarm over the deteriorating situation in northern Ethiopia, particularly in the Tigray region and parts of Amhara. Ridwan Hussein, Director General of Ethiopia’s National Intelligence and Security Service, and Getachew Reda, a former critic of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed who later became an ally and now serves as a senior adviser on East African affairs to the prime minister, warned that Ethiopia risks being drawn back into war.

The two officials accused “hardline elements” within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front of moving away from the Pretoria peace agreement and preparing for renewed armed confrontation with the federal government.

Ridwan and Getachew blamed what they described as a “rump TPLF” faction for escalating the crisis. They alleged that the faction has dismantled the interim regional administration, created a rival authority, expanded recruitment and military training, and sidelined figures committed to the peace process. “The rump TPLF has dismantled the regional interim administration and set up its own illegal administration,” Ridwan and Getachew wrote.

They argued that this faction is preparing for renewed fighting despite opposition from ordinary people in Tigray. Under what they described as a “dystopia of liberation,” they warned, another war would once again sacrifice young people and reverse the limited progress made since the Pretoria agreement silenced the guns in November 2022.

The officials also accused Eritrea of playing a central role in the alleged push toward renewed conflict. They said Asmara has supported anti-peace forces and helped connect TPLF hardliners with other armed elements, including through meetings linked to Asmara, Mekelle and Sudan. “For President Isayas, the internal conflict in Ethiopia was a dream come true,” they wrote. Last month, Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused Sudan of hosting “anti-Ethiopian forces,” following reports that Ethiopia had allegedly supported the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

Although the latest warning from senior Ethiopian officials is serious, Ethiopia’s accusations that Eritrea is working with elements of the TPLF are not new. Addis Ababa has made similar claims since last year, particularly after Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos sent a letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres accusing Eritrea and a hardline faction of the TPLF of “plotting a new war” against Ethiopia.

In that letter, and more recently in the opinion piece by the two Ethiopian officials, the alleged alliance was referred to as “Tsimdo.” Since October, Ethiopian officials have escalated their accusations, claiming that Eritrea is coordinating with elements of the TPLF and factions of Fano to destabilize the country. Earlier this year, the Ethiopian government also accused Eritrea of encroaching on and occupying Ethiopian territory, an allegation Eritrea has denied.

Tensions have also been rising inside Tigray, especially over the past few months. The TPLF has accused the federal government of violating the Pretoria peace agreement, including by failing to fully implement key provisions of the deal. Some Tigrayan officials have gone further, accusing the government of carrying out a “silent genocide,” a claim Addis Ababa rejects.

The political situation in Tigray has become increasingly complicated. The TPLF’s legal status as a political party was revoked by Ethiopia’s National Election Board, and the region was excluded from Ethiopia’s recent general election. The Abiy government also extended the mandate of the interim administration in Tigray, a move the TPLF rejected. In response, the TPLF reinstated the pre-war regional council and elected a new regional president, creating a rival political authority in the region.

Security concerns have continued to grow. Last week, a drone strike was reported in western Tigray, further raising fears of renewed conflict. Around the same period, the Ethiopian National Defense Force briefed diplomats and military attachés in Addis Ababa on what it described as the threat posed by the “Tsimdo” initiative. Major General Teshome Gemechu said the government had carried out diplomatic outreach to explain Ethiopia’s position and ensure that foreign partners understand the risks and the context behind any future actions Ethiopia may take. The briefing suggests that Addis Ababa is not only preparing militarily, but also trying to build an international case for its response if tensions with Eritrea, the TPLF or other armed actors escalate further.

It is worth noting that Asmara and Addis Ababa, along with factions of the Amhara nationalist Fano movement, were allies during the Tigray war against the TPLF. Eritrea and Ethiopia’s wartime partnership in Tigray was initially obscured by official denials, but it became one of the defining features of the conflict.

When fighting broke out in November 2020 between Ethiopia’s federal government and the TPLF, Eritrea entered the war on Addis Ababa’s side, sharing Abiy’s objective of weakening the TPLF, a longtime enemy of both governments. After months of denial, Abiy acknowledged that Eritrean troops had crossed into Tigray. He said they had moved along the border because of security concerns and would withdraw once Ethiopian forces could secure the area.

The coordination was most visible on the battlefield and in the pattern of abuses reported by survivors, aid workers, journalists and rights investigators. Eritrean troops operated inside Tigray while Ethiopian federal forces, Amhara regional forces and allied militias pressed their campaign against Tigrayan fighters and communities.

Amnesty International reported that Eritrean forces systematically killed hundreds of civilians in Axum in November 2020. Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International later described widespread abuses in Western Tigray, including killings, rape, mass detention and forced displacement, which they said amounted to war crimes and crimes against humanity.

But the Ethiopia-Eritrea alignment began to unravel after the November 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, which ended the large-scale fighting between Addis Ababa and the TPLF but did not include Eritrea as a signatory. Eritrea opposed a settlement that left the TPLF politically alive, while Ethiopia’s later push for Red Sea access deepened Asmara’s suspicion that Abiy’s government could turn from ally to threat. The former wartime partners are now openly accusing each other of destabilization.

However, there have also been diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the crisis. AU Special Envoy Olusegun Obasanjo, who played a key role in the Pretoria peace process, recently visited Mekelle. Tigray officials said they told Obasanjo that urgent and practical action is needed to protect civilians. Ambassador Addis Alem Balema said in a statement posted on the Tigray Presidency’s Facebook page that AU-led talks are still at an early stage. He said Tigray had reiterated “its willingness to resolve disputes through dialogue and negotiation.”

Despite these efforts, warning signs continue to point toward the risk of another major confrontation unless urgent action is taken to avert a catastrophic crisis. Ethiopia is already dealing with entrenched security crises across three major regional states. In Amhara, Fano fighters have been battling the federal government. In Oromia, the Oromo Liberation Army has continued its armed struggle against government forces. In Tigray, the fragile post-war political order is under severe strain. The tensions in Tigray, the worsening relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and ongoing conflicts in Amhara and Oromia indicate that the country is facing one of its most dangerous moments since the Pretoria agreement. Without sustained diplomatic pressure, credible implementation of the peace deal and meaningful efforts to address competing security concerns, Ethiopia risks sliding into another devastating cycle of war.