U.S. targets TPLF

The United States this week imposed targeted visa restrictions on what it described as “hardline members” of Ethiopia’s Tigray People’s Liberation Front and their immediate family members, accusing them of undermining efforts to resolve the crisis in the northern Tigray region.

The State Department said the move was aimed at individuals “responsible for, or complicit in” obstructing a resolution to the Tigray crisis, after tensions between the TPLF and Ethiopia’s federal government raised fears of renewed conflict.

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front criticised the U.S. decision, saying Washington had taken a one-sided approach to the implementation of a 2022 peace agreement that ended two years of war in northern Ethiopia. In a statement, the TPLF said it respected the United States’ role in supporting peace in the Horn of Africa but was “deeply concerned” that the restrictions appeared to place responsibility on the party while overlooking what it called the Ethiopian federal government’s failure to meet its obligations under the Pretoria Agreement.

The TPLF said the Pretoria accord, signed on Nov. 2, 2022, included commitments to restore constitutional order, return internally displaced people, withdraw non-federal forces from Tigrayan territory, restore basic services and humanitarian access, and recognise the party’s legal and political status.

“More than three years later, these key provisions remain largely unfulfilled,” the TPLF said, citing the continued displacement of hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans, the absence of accountability mechanisms and Tigray’s exclusion from Ethiopia’s June 1 elections.

The party said the humanitarian crisis in Tigray was the result of government policies, not TPLF intransigence. It said salaries, banking services, fuel supplies and humanitarian assistance remained restricted, while displaced people continued to live in dire conditions.

The TPLF called on the United States to press Ethiopia’s federal government to fully implement the Pretoria Agreement, support the return of displaced Tigrayans, advocate the withdrawal of non-federal forces from Tigrayan territory, back the restoration of the TPLF’s legal and political status, and apply accountability measures equally to all parties.

“Sustainable peace requires impartiality, consistency, and equal accountability for all parties,” the statement said.

The visa restrictions came at a time when the rift between Addis Ababa and Mekelle has been escalating over the past few months. The move followed recent warnings by two senior Ethiopian officials, Ridwan Hussein and Getachew Reda, both signatories of the Pretoria peace deal, that northern Ethiopia is facing a dangerous deterioration, with tensions in Tigray and parts of Amhara raising fears of renewed war.

In an opinion piece for Al Jazeera, they accused “hardline elements within the TPLF” of abandoning the Pretoria peace agreement and preparing for another confrontation with the federal government. They alleged that this faction had undermined the interim administration in Tigray, formed a rival authority, expanded military recruitment and sidelined actors committed to peace, despite what they described as public opposition in Tigray to another round of fighting.

They also accused Eritrea of encouraging instability by backing anti-peace forces and linking “TPLF hardliners” with other armed groups. Their claims build on earlier accusations by Addis Ababa that Eritrea and a TPLF faction, referred to as “Tsimdo,” are plotting to destabilise Ethiopia.

Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have worsened significantly since the Pretoria deal, which ended major fighting between the federal government and the TPLF but excluded Eritrea. The two countries had fought on the same side during the Tigray war, when Eritrean troops entered the conflict in support of Addis Ababa, but their wartime alliance has since broken down amid competing security concerns and Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access.

The political and security situation inside Tigray has also become increasingly fragile. The TPLF has accused the federal government of failing to fully implement the Pretoria Agreement. The party’s legal status has been revoked, Tigray was excluded from the recent general election, and the federal government extended the mandate of the interim regional administration.

In response, the TPLF restored the pre-war regional council and appointed a new regional president, deepening the region’s rival power structures. Reports of a drone strike in western Tigray and military briefings to diplomats in Addis Ababa have further heightened concerns that the federal government is preparing both militarily and diplomatically for possible escalation.

Despite these tensions, diplomatic efforts are continuing. AU envoy Olusegun Obasanjo recently visited Mekelle, where Tigray officials said they remained open to dialogue while calling for urgent measures to protect civilians.

However, the risks remain severe. Ethiopia is already facing armed conflicts in Amhara, where Fano fighters are battling federal forces, and in Oromia, where the Oromo Liberation Army remains active. The strain in Tigray, the collapse in Ethiopia-Eritrea relations and the wider security crises across the country suggest Ethiopia is at one of its most dangerous moments since the Pretoria Agreement.

Without sustained diplomacy, credible implementation of the peace deal and serious engagement with the security concerns of all sides, the country risks sliding back into a devastating cycle of war.

However, some prominent Ethiopian opposition figures have expressed scepticism over whether the visa restrictions will lead to meaningful de-escalation.

Jawar Mohamed warned that Washington’s new visa restrictions on selected TPLF leaders and their families could “accelerate conflict rather than prevent it,” arguing that the measures may convince TPLF leaders that “the diplomatic path has effectively closed.”

Reacting to the U.S. decision, Jawar said the sanctions are “largely symbolic” because most targeted officials are already unable to travel freely outside Tigray, and he questioned whether a visa ban would alter decisions they view as matters of “political survival.”

He argued that the TPLF currently faces “only two choices: fight or surrender,” while also criticising the sanctions for focusing only on the TPLF despite what he described as federal military deployments and “belligerent rhetoric” from senior officials.

“A small stick without any accompanying carrot is unlikely to inspire confidence,” Jawar said, adding that the move could end up “emboldening Abiy Ahmed’s government to act more aggressively.”