The UAE’s expanding influence in Kenya

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is steadily advancing its economic and political influence in East Africa. Recently, it has positioned Kenya as a central hub in this endeavour, based on Kenya’s economic clout and wide regional influence. 

This follows in the footsteps of the United States, which anointed Kenya its regional “anchor state” from which it extends its own influence. For Abu Dhabi, Kenya’s foreign policy  

Relations between Nairobi and Abu Dhabi have seen significant development in recent years, reaching a new zenith in the Kenya-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (the CEPA) signed earlier this year. Herald Aloo, a Kenyan business journalist, wrote the following about CEPA in the Africa Report: “This move not only underscores the UAE’s growing focus on East Africa but also positions Nairobi to solidify its role as a regional economic gateway.” Aloo adds that Kenya’s president, William Ruto has “has pivoted towards the UAE, actively trying to engage the UAE as investors from China and Western countries pull back from big-ticket infrastructure projects – like the SGR railway extension in Uganda – over commercial viability concerns.” 

Kenya also holds substantial economic weight as the largest economy in East Africa and is home to the Port of Mombasa—a vital artery for regional trade through which more than 80% of East Africa’s imports and exports flow. 

Kenya’s geographic location on the Indian Ocean coast, its proximity to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and its position as a hub for movers and shakers across the East Africa region give it immense strategic importance—serving as a natural gateway connecting Africa’s internal markets to global trade routes that pass through this vital maritime corridor. 

Kenya also holds substantial economic weight as the largest economy in East Africa and is home to the Port of Mombasa—a vital artery for regional trade through which more than 80% of East Africa’s imports and exports flow. Its importance is further amplified by being the main maritime outlet for landlocked countries such as Uganda, South Sudan, Rwanda, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, reinforcing its role as a trade and logistics hub that is hard to bypass. 

Buying influence 

The UAE’s presence in Kenya has become increasingly diverse and entrenched. Economic relations between the two countries now extend beyond trade, penetrating vital sectors of Kenya’s economic sovereignty. The UAE ranks as the sixth-largest destination for Kenyan exports and the second-largest source of its imports, particularly in fuel, machinery, and chemical products. It relies on a form of soft economic dominance that blends capital flows, technology transfer, and infrastructure development with access to land, natural resources, and local markets. 

The UAE has expanded its footprint in most of Kenya’s strategic sectors. According to official statements, on 8 May the two countries signed seven bilateral agreements during a visit by foreign minister Abdullah bin Zayed, covering a wide array of areas, including military affairs, customs operations, economic development, energy, railway development, and the creation of a joint business council. 

However, these were not the first agreements between the two nations. Earlier, in January 2025, the UAE signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with Kenya—the first such agreement between Abu Dhabi and an African country. The agreement offers preferential tariffs and customs benefits to Emirati companies and marks a new phase of direct economic influence. It follows years of groundwork laid through strategic investments and acquisitions in infrastructure, logistics, energy, agriculture, and the digital sector. 

A set of memoranda of understanding reflects the UAE’s ambition to transform Kenya into a modern economic gateway shaped by Emirati capital and policy. One notable example is the 2024 agreement between the UAE’s ADQ holding company and the Kenyan government to finance projects in mining and technology, with investments reaching $500 million—sectors that touch on sensitive issues related to natural resources and digital transformation. 

In the digital sector, the UAE Ministry of Investment signed an MoU with Kenya’s Ministry of Information, Communications and the Digital Economy to develop large-scale data centres and expand artificial intelligence services. This comes amid plans to establish a comprehensive digital infrastructure that may redefine information sovereignty in Kenya. Technological expansion goes beyond traditional investment, reaching into control over data flows and influencing public policy in areas such as cybersecurity, digital governance, and government services. 

The UAE, through DP World, has engaged in intensive negotiations to secure a foothold at the Port of Mombasa—the main maritime artery for Kenya and several landlocked East African countries. 

In agriculture, Emirati influence is evident through a large-scale project led by Al Dahra Agricultural Company in the Galana-Kulalu area, valued at $800 million and covering over 200,000 acres. Such projects not only grant access to fertile land and water resources, but also represent a form of long-term control over local food security—raising concerns that Kenyan lands may become functional extensions of the UAE’s food security strategy, with limited regard for the priorities of local communities. 

The logistics sector is equally critical to this strategy. The UAE, through DP World, has engaged in intensive negotiations to secure a foothold at the Port of Mombasa—the main maritime artery for Kenya and several landlocked East African countries. Although internal political pressures in Kenya have so far prevented a full handover of the port, partial agreements to build new berths, develop free zones, and provide advanced cargo services suggest a gradual entanglement of Kenya’s infrastructure in long-term partnerships that are difficult to reverse. 

Furthermore, the UAE has also entered Kenya’s aviation sector, particularly through Emirates SkyCargo, becoming a key player in the export of fresh agricultural products and enhancing Kenya’s connectivity with Asian and Gulf markets. This opens the door to greater control over regional supply chains and distribution networks. 

In this way, the UAE’s influence in Kenya is evolving into an interconnected economic system...  

On another front, renewable energy appears to be a future growth area for the UAE in Kenya. Companies such as Masdar have entered negotiations to build solar and wind power stations in various parts of the country, as part of Abu Dhabi’s broader effort to strengthen its presence in Africa’s energy markets and export its green transition model. Despite the developmental appeal of such projects, they raise questions about contractual terms, asset ownership, and the implications for Kenya’s environmental sovereignty. 

In this way, the UAE’s influence in Kenya is evolving into an interconnected economic system that integrates sovereign wealth funds, private companies, and government agencies into a unified strategy aimed at restructuring the relationship between the Gulf’s capitalist core and Africa’s periphery—serving the interests of the Emirati elite and reproducing dependency in a new form. 

Andreas Krieg, a fellow at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at King’s College London who specialises in the UAE, says this is all part of the Emirati model of statecraft, which subtly advances the country’s strategic goals through commerce, private business, and networks of influence. This masks Emirati power by maintaining plausible distance from what private companies do. He told the New York Times that Abu Dhabi has “revolutionised statecraft for a small country” through this model, enabling it to act like a middle power. 

The UAE has particularly focused on Africa as a target of its expanding influence, leading the Africa Report to ask whether the Emirates is “superpower” on the continent. At the end of last year, it emerged as the largest backer of new business across the continent. Between 2019 and 2023 the UAE investd $110bn (£88bn) of projects, $72bn of them in renewable energy, according to the Financial Times.  

The political dimensions of Emirati investments in Kenya 

Despite the significant economic returns the UAE stands to gain from its strategic investments in Kenya, these moves also serve key political objectives. The UAE recognises Kenya’s importance as a relatively stable country in a volatile regional environment, and as an active diplomatic partner in mediation and conflict resolution. Deepening relations with Kenya therefore allows Abu Dhabi to present itself as a trusted actor in ensuring regional stability and enhances its foreign policy profile. 

Influence in Kenya serves as a regional force multiplier. Elites from across the region—from South Sudan to Somalia—own second homes in the country and maintain connections to Kenya’s political class, offering the Emirates opportunities to pursue synergies in foreign policy objectives. For example, Kenya hosted a conference earlier this year at which the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the UAE’s ally in Sudan’s civil war, declared a parallel government. 

The declaration came following revelations that Nairobi received substantial Emirati funding—amounting to $193 million—alongside a $1 million loan from the UAE at the same time the charter was signed. According to Bloomberg reports, the timing raises suspicions that the UAE is leveraging its economic ties with Kenya as an indirect tool to influence the trajectory of the Sudanese war and to support initiatives aimed at dismantling the Sudanese state within a new political architecture for the region. 

This has resulted in a dramatic fall out between Nairobi and Khartoum, as Sudan accused Kenya of having an “irresponsible stance” by “embracing the genocide-linked RSF militia”. Sudan banned imports from Kenya in March. Voice of America even examined Sudan’s claim that Kenya backs the RSF, concluding they are “likely true”.  

These concerns about the UAE’s influence were echoed by the Djiboutian president, Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, in an interview with Radio France Internationale (RFI) who said Abu Dhabi’s investments are not “purely economic ventures”. “They are intertwined with military objectives that risk compromising the sovereignty and stability of African nations.”