Trump offers US mediation on Nile dispute

US President Donald Trump has offered to resume the American mediation role between Egypt and Ethiopia in the long-running dispute over the sharing of Nile River waters and the rules governing the filling and operation of Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The move would return Washington to a highly sensitive dispute that has intensified since September last year, when Ethiopia opened the GERD.

The offer came in a letter Trump addressed to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and published on the Truth Social platform. In the letter, Trump said the United States was “ready to restart mediation” aimed at reaching a “responsible” settlement to the Nile water-sharing issue “once and for all.” According to the letter, copies were sent to a number of regional leaders, including UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Ethiopian president, and the chairman of Sudan’s Sovereignty Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, signaling a US desire to keep influential regional actors informed of any prospective arrangements.

In an approach presented as a basis for a solution, Trump spoke of “fair and transparent negotiations” supported by technical expertise and a US-backed mechanism for follow-up and coordination. He stressed that water resources in the Nile Basin should not fall under “unilateral control” by any one party in a way that harms its neighbors. He also outlined a framework based on guaranteeing “predictable water releases” to Egypt and Sudan during droughts and dry years, while enabling Ethiopia to operate the dam to generate electricity on a large scale. This could include the possibility of granting or selling some of that electricity to Cairo or Khartoum under subsequent cooperation arrangements.

The US initiative comes at a time when the GERD file remains stalled despite years of negotiations. Egypt and Sudan continue to call for a legally binding tripartite agreement defining rules for filling and operation, as well as mechanisms for managing droughts. Ethiopia, meanwhile, maintains that the dam is a sovereign development project primarily intended to address its electricity deficit and support economic growth, insisting that its operation is not aimed at harming downstream countries.

Ethiopia began construction of the GERD in 2011 on a tributary of the Blue Nile near the Sudanese border. The project was officially inaugurated in September 2025 as Africa’s largest hydroelectric power plant, with an announced maximum production capacity of around 5,150 megawatts. Addis Ababa says the dam is a cornerstone of its efforts to provide electricity to millions of citizens and to open the door to exporting surplus power to neighboring countries.

By contrast, Cairo views the dam as a potential threat to its water security, particularly during drought periods, and considers any filling or operation without a binding agreement a direct risk to its share of Nile waters. Egypt has repeatedly rejected unilateral actions on the river, stressing that the issue touches on its “existential security,” given its near-total dependence on the Nile as a source of fresh water. Sudan, meanwhile, occupies a middle position, balancing concerns over dam safety and flow management against potential benefits such as improved flood control and access to lower-cost electricity.

Trump’s offer revives memories of a previous US mediation track launched during his first term, which effectively stalled in 2020 after Ethiopia withdrew from talks held in Washington. Negotiations later continued under regional frameworks but failed to produce a final settlement on operating rules.

The prospects for success of any new initiative remain tied to several factors, most notably the willingness of the three parties to return to the negotiating table under clear terms of reference, the mediator’s ability to provide enforceable technical and legal guarantees, and the establishment of a follow-up mechanism to prevent repeated deadlock with each filling or operating cycle. While Trump is promoting the idea of a “permanent settlement,” the question remains whether Cairo, Addis Ababa, and Khartoum are prepared to make reciprocal concessions that would move the file out of polarization and toward resolution.