TPLF warns Tigray faces “existential danger”

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has issued a stern statement warning that the people of Tigray face an “existential threat,” accusing the Ethiopian government of continuing policies that it says amount to a prolonged campaign against the region.

In a lengthy statement released today, the TPLF said the humanitarian, political, and security situation in the Tigray region remains extremely fragile despite the end of large-scale fighting following the 2022 peace agreement. The group called on Tigrayans to remain focused on what it described as the region’s “core national agendas” and to resist attempts to divide the population during what it characterized as a critical moment for the region’s survival.

According to the TPLF statement, large portions of Tigray remain under external control, while many residents continue to live in displacement camps and rely on humanitarian assistance. The group claimed that roughly 40 percent of Tigray’s territory remains occupied, leaving many communities unable to return to their homes. It also warned that civilians are still suffering from hunger, disease, and a lack of basic services — conditions it says amount to “genocide.” It further accused the Ethiopian government of maintaining restrictions that have limited the region’s economic recovery. It said “banking services, fuel supplies, medicine, and other essential resources have been blocked,” contributing to what it described as a deepening socio-economic crisis.

Another central element of the TPLF statement is the claim that military forces are being positioned around Tigray, raising fears of a potential new round of conflict. According to the statement, Ethiopian government forces and allied units have been gathering troops and military equipment around the region. The TPLF suggested that such deployments could indicate preparations for renewed hostilities. However, the statement did not provide detailed evidence or specific locations for the alleged military buildup.

The group warned that “misleading agendas” are being promoted both inside and outside the region with the intention of weakening Tigray politically and socially.

The latest statement from the TPLF follows a statement issued last week by a coalition of political parties from Ethiopia’s Tigray region. The coalition appealed to foreign governments and international organizations to pressure the Ethiopian federal government to ease restrictions on the region and prevent a potential return to conflict. The Tigray Political Parties Forum (TPPF) warned that tensions are rising more than three years after the November 2022 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement ended the two-year war in northern Ethiopia.

The forum stated that key provisions of the peace agreement remain unimplemented, accusing Addis Ababa of “lacking commitment” to the deal. It highlighted ongoing humanitarian concerns, noting that more than 1.2 million people from Tigray remain displaced and are living in camps within the region or in refugee camps in neighbouring Sudan, often without adequate access to food, healthcare, and education.

The coalition also accused the federal government of reinstating restrictions on the region, including limiting fuel supplies, suspending budget transfers since October 2025, and restricting banking services, trade, and transport. According to the forum, banks in the region are running out of cash and fuel deliveries have reportedly been halted since January 2026.

Despite these developments, the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has remained largely silent. However, the growing series of statements from the TPLF, which has continued to release public messages since the end of last year, has intensified fears of a potential return to armed conflict in the region. These warnings come at a time when Tigray is still struggling to recover from the devastating war that ended in 2022, a conflict widely believed to have claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of people while leaving the region’s economy, infrastructure, and social fabric severely damaged.

The renewed rhetoric also coincides with rising tensions along Ethiopia’s northern border. Ethiopian officials, including Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, have accused Eritrean forces of maintaining a continued presence in parts of the border area between the two countries. Eritrean authorities, however, have repeatedly denied these allegations. As mistrust between the parties persists and unresolved security concerns remain, analysts warn that the fragile peace in northern Ethiopia could face renewed strain if diplomatic engagement and confidence-building measures fail to address the underlying disputes.