Tigray fighting rekindles fears of wider war

Renewed fighting in western Tigray has intensified fears of a return to large-scale conflict between Ethiopia’s federal government and Tigrayan forces. The clashes began near Shererina, close to Sheraro and the Sudanese border, and represent one of the gravest challenges to the Pretoria peace agreement that ended the 2020–2022 war. Both sides have accused the other of initiating the confrontation.

In a statement, the Tigray regional government accused federal forces of launching repeated ground attacks and using air power in the Shererina area. It further alleged that fighters belonging to Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, and other armed groups participated in the offensive. The statement did not provide supporting evidence for the RSF allegation, which has not been independently verified.

The regional government said Tigray Security Forces repelled the attacks after fighting lasting from dawn until late afternoon. It claimed the attacking forces suffered extensive casualties and that “hospitals between western Tigray and Gondar were overwhelmed with wounded soldiers,” some of whom were reportedly evacuated by air.

Federal officials have presented a different account. Abraham Belay, a federal minister who previously headed Tigray’s wartime transitional administration, acknowledged that clashes had occurred but accused forces loyal to TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael of starting the fighting. He called for the parties to resolve their differences through dialogue.

The violence has also spilled across the border into Sudan. Sudan’s Commission for Refugees said projectiles from the fighting struck refugee camps in eastern Sudan, killing and wounding several Ethiopian refugees. The commission warned that continued troop mobilisation could produce a new influx of displaced people into Sudan and deepen humanitarian pressures in border areas.

The latest confrontation follows months of deteriorating relations between Addis Ababa and the TPLF, with each side accusing the other of violating the Pretoria agreement. Disputes over regional authority, disarmament, contested territories and the TPLF’s political status remain unresolved. The Tigray government’s warning that attacks could occur on additional fronts, combined with increasingly confrontational rhetoric from both camps, has heightened concern that the fighting could expand unless mediation efforts produce a ceasefire.

The latest clashes followed a widening rift between Addis Ababa and the TPLF over the implementation of the Pretoria agreement. Federal authorities have accused the TPLF of rebuilding and mobilising its forces, conducting recruitment campaigns and preparing for renewed confrontation. The TPLF, in turn, has accused the federal government of deploying troops and heavy weapons around Tigray, supporting rival Tigrayan armed groups and deliberately creating the conditions for another war. Many of these competing allegations remain difficult to verify independently.

The dispute has also become entangled with Ethiopia’s worsening relations with Eritrea and Sudan. Addis Ababa has repeatedly accused the TPLF of cooperating with Eritrea, despite the two having fought on opposing sides during the 2020–2022 war. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has also alleged collaboration among the TPLF, Eritrea and Sudan against Ethiopia. The TPLF and Eritrea have denied working together, while Ethiopian authorities have separately accused Sudan of supporting armed groups operating in Tigray and violating Ethiopia’s territorial integrity.

A major political rupture came after the federal government extended the tenure of Tigray’s interim administration, established under the Pretoria agreement to govern until regional elections could be organised. The TPLF rejected the decision, saying Addis Ababa had acted without consulting it and had undermined the postwar political arrangement. In May, the party restored Tigray’s pre-war legislative council, which elected TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael as regional president. The move created two competing authorities: the federally recognised interim administration headed by Tadesse Worede and the administration declared by the TPLF.

The political confrontation has been accompanied by increasingly visible military activity. Clashes between Tigrayan forces, federal troops and government-aligned fighters have occurred periodically since January, while reports have described troop movements, reserve mobilisation and the deployment of heavy weapons around the region. Tigrayan authorities have also accused federal forces of carrying out intermittent drone attacks. Following fighting in Tselemti in late January, drone strikes killed one person and wounded another, according to Tigrayan officials, although the Ethiopian military did not publicly respond to the allegation.

Against this background, the fighting near Shererina appears to be the culmination of months of political brinkmanship, military mobilisation and mutual accusations rather than an isolated confrontation. The creation of rival regional administrations, disputes over security arrangements and contested territories, and the growing involvement of Eritrean and Sudanese tensions have further weakened the Pretoria framework.