Tanzania turns East amid Post-Election turmoil

Weeks after her re-election in a vote that triggered one of the most severe waves of political repression in the country’s history, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan is moving to deepen her country’s partnerships with China and Russia, at a time when relations with Western capitals are experiencing growing tension and criticism of her human rights record.

The government faced international criticism after the October 29 presidential election, in which Samia won nearly 98%, amid the exclusion of major opposition candidates, accusations of manipulation, and mass arrests following protests in several cities. Local opposition groups and human rights organizations reported that hundreds of protesters were killed, while international reports described the events as akin to a “Tiananmen moment” in modern Tanzanian history.

In the wake of these events, the president announced the formation of an investigative committee into the killings during the protests, under pressure from the United Nations and Western governments that demanded uncovering the facts and holding those responsible to account. Western countries, including the United States, also began reviewing their policies toward Dar es Salaam, imposing stricter travel guidelines and restrictions—developments described by specialized reports as the first indicator of the “political and economic cost” of post-election repression in a country that depends on tourism for about 17% of its GDP.

In contrast, Beijing and Moscow adopted an entirely different tone. China quickly congratulated Samia on her victory, and President Xi Jinping said in an official message that he “attaches great importance to developing China–Tanzania relations,” pledging to continue deepening the “comprehensive strategic partnership” between the two countries.

The congratulatory message came amid steadily strengthening bilateral ties; in 2022, the two sides announced the upgrade of their relations to a “comprehensive cooperative strategic partnership,” accompanied by a package of infrastructure agreements under the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly restoring Tanzania’s place as a key partner in the initiative.

This month, China, Tanzania, and Zambia signed a $1.4-billion agreement to rehabilitate the Tanzania–Zambia Railway (TAZARA), which was built in the 1970s to link Zambia’s copper fields to the port of Dar es Salaam. The project is now seen as central to integrating southern Africa’s mining corridors with Tanzanian ports, as part of China’s broader vision to control supply chains of critical minerals.

On the Russian front, July this year saw the launch of a pilot uranium-processing facility at the Mkuju River Project in southern Tanzania, operated by “Mantra Tanzania,” a subsidiary of Russia’s Rosatom, with President Samia in attendance. The plan aims to open the country’s first commercial uranium mine by 2029, with a potential capacity of up to 3,000 tons annually, placing Tanzania on the global map of nuclear fuel suppliers.

Meanwhile, Russia’s Gazprom is preparing to expand its presence in Tanzania’s gas market through investments in compressed natural gas (CNG) stations and the supply of mobile filling units and trucks, an effort to take advantage of the government’s push to expand the use of gas as a cheaper fuel alternative to traditional petroleum products.

These projects reinforce the image of a growing alliance between Dar es Salaam and Moscow, particularly amid repeated official Tanzanian and Russian statements praising the “long history of political relations” between the two countries and seeking to translate it into deeper cooperation in energy and mining.

Domestically, Samia’s re-election was accompanied by a significant government reshuffle, including the appointment of former ambassador to Beijing, Khamis Musa Omar, as Minister of Finance, seen by observers as another signal that partnership with China is a top priority going forward, especially given Tanzania’s need to finance large-scale gas, railway, and port projects.

Analysts believe that by strengthening ties with Beijing and Moscow, the president is attempting to offset some of the Western pressure and secure funding and investments with fewer political conditions. However, this also risks deepening Tanzania’s dependence on partners who may not give human rights and democratic governance the same weight that Western capitals and international financial institutions do.

While Western governments continue to demand a transparent investigation into the protest deaths and deeper political and judicial reforms, it appears that Dar es Salaam is betting on a combination of limited domestic de-escalation and increased foreign-policy maneuvering with major non-Western powers to overcome the most serious legitimacy crisis the country has faced in decades