Syria: a decade long revolution complete

When Syrian rebels fanned out from Idlib in late November, few could have anticipated that their surprise offensive would eventually bear down on the country’s capital, Damascus, forcing its president, Bashar al-Assad, to leave in ignominy after brutalising the nation for more than two decades. Fighters from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) first captured Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city, before blitzing south along the M5 highway to reach Hama and then Homs, the “capital of the revolution”. Simultaneously, rebels marched north from Daraa creating a kind of pincer as they raced to Damascus. “If this continues, the domino effect is going to produce new scenes,” wrote Syrian-American journalist Hassan Hassan. And we did indeed witness new scenes.  

Within hours of capturing Homs and severing Assad’s connection to the Mediterranean, the rebels reached the capital. Statues of Assad’s father, Hafez, were torn down, an announcement was made by the rebels on state TV, and, in scenes reminiscent of those in Bangladesh or Sri Lanka, the Syrian public stormed the presidential palace and began reclaiming decades of looted taxes directly. An interviewee on Al Jazeera English captured what the moment meant for Syrians who had been fighting the Assad regime for their freedom for over a decade. “At the beginning of the revolution they said you will have al-Assad as president or we will burn you,” said Omar Horanieh, who was on the phone from newly liberated Damascus. “Now the pictures of Bashar al-Assad are burning in Damascus and everywhere in Syria and we stand.” Syrians across the country and around the world celebrated by waving the revolutionary flag, firing their guns into the air, playing music, and honking their horns. The most moving images were of people being released from prisons—some having spent decades behind bars, still believing Hafez was in power—and of families being reunited after years of separation. Hargeisa’s small Syrian community also celebrated with Somali onlookers. It spoke to the depth of the relief ordinary Syrians felt but also the low regard for which they held Assad. As Channel 4 journalist Matt Frei put it, the former eye surgeon had evidently become blind to his own people’s immense suffering under his rule.  

Anas al-Sharif, a Gaza-based correspondent for Al Jazeera Arabic, delivered one of the most sombre yet sincere messages of congratulations to the Syrian people, a beautiful demonstration of solidarity: “Despite the great sadness and difficult circumstances that people in Gaza are living in, everyone I met today was happy for the joy of our people in Syria.”  

Assad eventually fled the country to Moscow and claimed asylum without putting up much of a fight. The rebels cut through regime defences like a hot knife through butter, prompting substantial speculation about whether an agreement had been reached between Moscow and Ankara, the rebels’ main backer, given Assad’s intransigence in response to repeated appeals for dialogue from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. It may be some time before we know the truth—if we ever know it at all. In light of how readily Assad left, Umar Farooq, an investigative journalist at Bloomberg makes a crucial point: “so much could have been avoided if he did this 13 years ago.”  

But these last two weeks, if nothing else, are an object lesson on the perils of presentism and the importance of strategic patience. We all assumed the Syrian civil war was frozen and that Assad had stabilised his government, even if he didn’t control much of his territory.  

Today, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani has emerged from his confinement in Idlib, not as a wanted terrorist with a $10 million bounty on his head, but as a national hero. He has hit all the right tunes with the press, offering assurances about personal rights and the protection of Syria’s minorities, while pledging to focus on building institutions rather than establishing a new autocracy. It was quite something to see him on CNN, especially for those who had been following him for years prior. It was also surreal to see him enter Damascus’ Umayyad Mosque, surrounding crowds trying to capture a glimpse of the man who changed the country’s fate.  

This is an inflection point; however, as those who have observed transitions from dictatorship to democracy elsewhere can attest, the process is not always smooth. The rebels have been wise to keep Syria’s prime minister in place through the transition to ensure the integrity of the state but the more pressing concern will be getting the rebels to put their guns down, regularising them through integration into a professional army and setting up robust structure that people can feel represent them and which they can connect with. “If the political doesn’t find a home in the cultural, its sovereignty won’t take hold,” writes British philosopher Terry Eagleton. “You don’t have to detest the Jacobins or idealise Marie Antoinette to take the point.” Anyone can legally become a citizen of any country—that is a matter of paperwork and fate. However, forging bonds between citizens in a post-conflict scenario and rebuilding trust between citizens and the state is a far more complex endeavour.

Somalis recognise the moment. Ours came in the early 1990s, when an alphabet soup of rebel groups that had been fighting the regime of Siad Barre eventually toppled his government in the capital, Mogadishu, bringing much of the country under local rule. That wasn’t missed on Ali Omar, Somalia’s state minister for foreign affairs, who on his X account posted: “Praying for peace and smooth transitions in Damascus, Syria.” He added caution however, warning that the uncertain political situation in Syria resembles the post-Barre “turmoil”. “Unity is key to stability,” he counseled. Apart from this statement, the outcome in Syria has been met with radio silence from the government, which is likely concerned that the rebels’ victory might embolden al-Shabaab. The group’s media outlet, Radio Alfurqaan, has been relentlessly covering everything from Syria’s geography to the history of the Assad dynasty, as well as providing a day-by-day account of the fighting. Returning to Omar’s post though, unfortunately, Somalia was not unified, and nearly two and a half decades were lost to statelessness, warlordism, clannism and religious extremism. This is why it is essential that the patience which sustained Syrians through the civil war be redoubled in the new struggle to build a viable state and a healthy, vibrant society.