Sudan and UAE jockey for influence in Mogadishu

Mogadishu had an unusually busy week of visitors, as both Sudan and the United Arab Emirates dispatched delegations to Villa Somalia within two days of each other. First through the doors was Sudan’s intelligence chief, Ahmed Ibrahim Ali Mufaddal. He met President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud at Villa Somalia, carrying a message from Sudan’s military leader, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. The note, according to an official readout, reaffirmed Khartoum’s “commitment to deepening bilateral cooperation with Somalia in all areas of mutual interest.” Then the UAE stepped in. State minister for foreign affairs, Sheikh Shakhboot bin Nahyan, arrived in Mogadishu with what the Somalis called a “special message” from Mohammed bin Zayed but no further details. Veteran Voice of America journalist, Harun Maruf, asked: “What was the message?” Somalia’s state news agency, SONNA, reported that the two meetings were unrelated.

Not everyone is convinced. Omar Mahmoud, the International Crisis Group’s senior Somalia analyst, told Geeska: “The visits were likely linked to allegations that the UAE has been using Bosaso as one of the corridors for Emirati planes on the way to Sudan”. Mahmoud added: “Sudan has been rallying diplomatic support against the UAE and Somalia sits on the UN security council, increasing its stature.”

The UAE rather likely wants to keep the issue out of open discussion”. Rich Tedd, a journalist who monitors flights across northeast Africa recently told Geeska that nearly 80 military cargo flights landed in eastern Libya in July, where the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have a presence — with more than half of them, originating from Bosaso, Puntland.

Sudan has already lodged a protest directly with Mogadishu. Somali authorities aren’t able to do much about it. Cameron Hudson, a senior associate in the Africa Programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, tells Geeska. “Somalia is too beholden, as the UAE plays a role in counterterrorism against IS-Somalia.” He adds that Puntland has become one of five likely locations — alongside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Libya, and Chad — from which Abu Dhabi resupplies the RSF. “The UAE has virtually encircled Sudan,” Hudson says