South West State’s swift election, and the fallout that followed

On Saturday morning, South West State conducted hastily organized elections, completing an entire political process within a single day. In rapid succession, the regional parliament was sworn in, its leadership elected, and the incumbent president, Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen, was subsequently declared re-elected through a parliamentary vote. The election followed an indirect voting system, whereby members of the South West State parliament elected the president.

Reacting to his re-election, Laftagareen wrote on his official X account:
“My priority in my second term as president of South West State is to continue fighting for and delivering progress for all our people,” adding, “We have a big opportunity to develop our state. We must work together.”

Several prominent opposition figures, including former president Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and former president Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, congratulated Laftagareen on his victory. The administration of Jubbaland, which has been in political deadlock with the federal government, also extended its congratulations.

However, both the legitimacy and timing of the election have been widely contested.

The Federal Government of Somalia condemned the process, describing it as “unlawful” and a “premeditated self-appointment” that violates national agreements and constitutional principles. In a statement issued shortly after the announcement of Laftagareen’s re-election, federal authorities argued that the process contravened agreements reached by the National Consultative Council, as well as Somalia’s electoral laws and provisional constitution. The government maintained that the vote did not reflect the will of the people of South West State.

“The event was not a legitimate election,” the statement said, characterizing it as “a blatant attempt to mislead the democratic process and impose a predetermined outcome.”

The federal government also rejected what it described as attempts to legitimize leadership through coercive or corrupt political practices. “Legitimate leadership can only emerge from the will of the people,” the statement added.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, speaking at a road-opening ceremony on Saturday morning, stated: “We have over 20 documents that they have signed, outlining agreements on how elections will be conducted, including the establishment of an independent electoral and boundaries commission,” adding that “we have moved away from indirect elections.”

Soon after the election, reports emerged suggesting that a motion to impeach President Mohamud had been put forward by more than 130 Members of Parliament. According to a letter that circulated widely, the MPs accused the president of corruption, constitutional violations, and infringements on civil rights. The reports quickly gained traction and sparked political debate across the country. However, parliamentary leadership later refuted these claims, dismissing them as “fake” and stating that no formal impeachment process had been initiated.

The election took place amid an extraordinary political crisis, characterized by rising tensions between Somalia’s federal government and multiple federal member states. In a dramatic move, South West State announced last week that it was severing ties with the federal government. The state also rejected recent constitutional amendments made by President Mohamud’s administration, arguing that the changes lacked consensus and undermined the federal arrangement. By aligning itself with Puntland and Jubbaland, both of which have opposed the constitutional change process, South West State has effectively joined a broader bloc of regional administrations challenging Mogadishu’s authority.

The federal government has responded forcefully, deploying troops across parts of South West State in what officials describe as an effort to “maintain national unity and constitutional order.” Reports indicate that federal forces have increased their presence in key areas, while local authorities have mobilized their own forces in response. This parallel buildup has heightened fears of confrontation. The mobilization of troops on both sides has created a volatile situation.

The international community has expressed growing concern. The United Nations Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS) stated that it is “closely monitoring developments in South West State,” emphasizing that political differences between the federal government and member states should be “resolved through dialogue.” In its communiqué, the mission warned that escalating tensions could have “implications for Somalia’s stability, unity, and humanitarian situation.” It called on all parties to engage in “constructive dialogue and refrain from actions that could lead to further violence.”

The hurried election in Baidoa was a response to the widening rift between Baidoa and Mogadishu, as well as the increasing mobilization of troops in and around the state. President Laftagareen has interpreted this military buildup as interference in the internal affairs of South West State, and as an attempt by the federal government to remove him from office. More broadly, the crisis in South West State reflects the deeper and ongoing political challenges facing the country as a whole. The constitutional changes remain contested, and the lack of agreement on upcoming elections continues to be a major impasse.

The federal government insists on moving away from the indirect electoral system while simultaneously advancing the constitutional changes it has introduced. The crisis in Baidoa is the latest manifestation of these ongoing challenges, which have persisted for the past two years.