South West state defies Mogadishu, pushes ahead with elections

Somalia’s South West State Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission has officially unveiled the regional legislators for the state’s third parliament. In addition to revealing the list of lawmakers, the regional administration has announced plans to proceed with parliamentary leadership elections, which will subsequently be followed by the presidential election. These elections are set to be conducted through an indirect electoral model.

The timing of these announcements coincides with a deepening political crisis in the state, alongside a broader stalemate that has characterized much of the past two years in the country. The federal government has advanced constitutional and electoral models that have contributed to this prolonged impasse.

Last week, South West State announced that it had cut ties with the federal government. South West State’s decision to sever relations with Somalia’s federal government marked a decisive turning point in the country’s political crisis. The announcement, made by leaders in Baidoa, framed the move as a response to “sustained federal interference in the state’s internal affairs.” Regional officials argued that actions taken by the federal government have gone beyond constitutional limits, “undermining local governance structures and weakening the authority of the state administration.”

The leadership in South West State has also rejected the constitutional changes introduced by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The decision was quickly endorsed by lawmakers from the region at the federal level. This move triggered a response from the federal government, which promptly took several measures, including declaring the mandate of the South West State leadership expired. Since then, the federal government has been deploying troops and weapons across the state’s administrative localities. The government has also deployed heavy weapons and special forces units, while reportedly arming local militias in an attempt to create strong opposition to the regional leadership.

This has officially made South West State the third federal member state to cut ties with the federal government. Previously, two major regional states, Puntland and Jubbaland, had already severed ties with Mogadishu.

Security has emerged as one of the most contentious aspects of the crisis. South West officials accuse the federal government of deploying troops and facilitating armed actors within the region, arguing that such actions destabilize the local security environment. The appointment and restructuring of security leadership positions have also been viewed as politically motivated efforts to shift control away from the regional administration. In contrast, the federal government has not explicitly acknowledged coercive intent, but its expanding security footprint has nonetheless contributed to rising tensions on the ground.

The constitutional dispute is another central driver of the fallout. The federal government has introduced and formalized a set of constitutional amendments that redefine key aspects of governance, including the distribution of powers and the length of presidential terms. South West State, alongside Puntland and Jubbaland, rejects these changes, arguing that they were adopted without sufficient consultation and lack national consensus. By continuing to recognize the earlier provisional constitution, these states have effectively positioned themselves in opposition to the legal framework endorsed by Mogadishu, creating a situation in which competing constitutional interpretations coexist.

Disagreements over the electoral model have further deepened the divide. The federal government has strongly advocated for transitioning to a direct “one person, one vote” system, presenting it as a “transformative step toward democratic governance.” However, South West State and its allies contend that the conditions necessary for such a system — security, institutional capacity, and political consensus — are not yet in place. Critics within the country including the opposition also question the political neutrality of the reform, arguing that its design and timing could advantage the current federal leadership. This lack of agreement over how elections should be conducted has turned the electoral roadmap into a central point of contention.

South West State’s decision to cut ties reflects a convergence of political, constitutional, and security disputes that have been building over time. By aligning itself with other dissenting regions, the state has reinforced a broader challenge to federal authority.

With political timelines narrowing and tensions on the ground increasing, the situation remains volatile, with the risk that unresolved disputes could evolve into a deeper and more destabilizing confrontation. The federal government appears relentless in its pursuit of influencing the regional electoral model in an attempt to secure legitimacy for what critics describe as an unpopular election framework, which has contributed to the country’s deep political crisis.

There have been mediation efforts by clan elders in the region, however, these efforts have not yet yielded any breakthrough. The situation now remains volatile. The regional administration has scaled up troop mobilization, while the federal government continues to deploy forces in South West State.