Somalia’s President in Kismayo for fence-mending talks

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud arrived today in Kismayo, the capital of Jubbaland State, marking his first visit in months. The trip comes amid strained relations between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Jubbaland administration. Over the past ten months, ties between President Mohamud and Jubbaland’s leader, Ahmed Mohamed Islam “Madobe,” have been riddled with tension and, at times, armed confrontation.

The current standoff traces back to November last year, when Ahmed Madobe was re-elected as president of Jubbaland. The FGS, led by Mohamud, rejected the outcome as “illegal”, citing procedural irregularities, a disputed electoral commission, and the exclusion of federal observers. Jubbaland, for its part, accused Mogadishu of overreach and interference in a process protected under Somalia’s federal charter.

The political rift escalated rapidly. Both sides issued arrest warrants for each other’s officials, and by December, clashes erupted between federal and Jubbaland forces in the coastal town of Ras Kamboni. Fighting later spread across Gedo, particularly in Beled Hawo and Doolow, displacing hundreds of civilians. In February, President Madobe publicly accused Mohamud of “turning the country into a family business.”

President Mohamud’s Kismayo visit comes as his administration pushes to implement a one-person, one-vote electoral model, a reform he insists is crucial to move Somalia beyond the clan-based indirect voting system that has defined country’s politics since the Third Republic’s establishment.

However, the proposal faces firm resistance from several federal member states, including Puntland and Jubbaland. Both Madobe and Puntland’s Said Abdullahi Deni, backed by opposition figures, argue that any new electoral framework must be based on broad consensus.

This disagreement overlaps with another flashpoint: the federal government’s proposed constitutional amendments. The changes expand executive powers, moves critics say are designed to consolidate authority in Mogadishu. Mohamud maintains the reforms are essential to “advance Somalia’s democratic transition.”

In June this year, Puntland and Jubbaland issued a joint statement rejecting any constitutional changes initiated unilaterally by the federal government.

Mohamud’s trip also comes just days after the announcement of a new opposition alliance, the Somalia Future Council (SFC), launched in Nairobi on October 2. The coalition brings together prominent figures including Jubbaland’s Ahmed Madobe, Puntland’s Said Abdullahi Deni, and senior members of the Somali Salvation Forum (SSF), among them former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and former Prime Ministers Hassan Ali Khayre and Abdi Farah Shirdon.

In a joint statement, the bloc vowed to “convene a meeting within Somalia to discuss and decide on the country’s political transition” and to “finalize the formation of the Future Council at that meeting.”

The new alliance effectively replaces the SSF, which fractured in August after one faction, led by former prime minster Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke struck a deal with President Mohamud’s administration. That agreement rolled back some controversial constitutional amendments, including provisions granting the president authority to appoint and dismiss the prime minister. The revised framework restored parliamentary powers, allowing lawmakers to elect the president, who would then nominate a prime minister subject to parliamentary approval.

The deal earned praise from international partners, including the African Union (AU) and IGAD, but was dismissed by opposition leaders.

Reacting to Mohamud’s visit, Abdirahman Abdishakur, a senior member of the Somalia Future Council, wrote on X (formerly Twitter): “His (Mohamud’s) boat, adrift and directionless, has now docked in Kismayo. But for how long, and to what end?”

Abdishakur added, “without a consistent strategy built on credible commitments, this visit is merely another unpredictable swing of the pendulum. It may generate a day's headlines, but it will not rebuild the trust he has systematically broken.”

Such skepticism reflects the prevailing mood among opposition figures and regional leaders, who accuse the federal government of unilateralism in steering the electoral transition.

President Mohamud’s visit to Kismayo may signal an attempt to mend fences with Madobe and rally support for his electoral framework and constitutional reforms. Yet whether it leads to real reconciliation or remains a symbolic gesture remains to be seen. For now, Somalia’s electoral roadmap remains uncertain, and the road to the 2026 elections looks long, and turbulent.