Somalia’s power brokers gather in Kismayo

Somalia’s election crisis is entering a volatile new phase as major national figures — including Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni, former prime ministers, and several influential opposition leaders and MPs — gather in the southern port city of Kismayo. Their meeting comes at a time when the country’s political crisis is deepening and the path toward the 2026 elections remains uncertain.

For nearly two years, Somalia has been locked in a stalemate over the electoral model, with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration insisting on a shift to a one-person, one-vote system. This proposal has been firmly rejected by key opposition groups and federal member states such as Puntland and Jubbaland, which argue that the plan lacks national consensus, and is unrealistic given the country’s security and political environment.

The dispute has strained relations to the breaking point, at times erupting into armed confrontations and contributing to the total collapse of relations between the federal government and the two major federal member state administrations. Puntland has severed ties with the federal government, while Jubbaland has clashed with federal troops and recently announced that it will no longer include “Federal Member State” in its official name.

Meanwhile, the National Independent Electoral Commission has continued to push forward with district-level elections, including the long-delayed Mogadishu municipal vote. Initially scheduled for October, the election was postponed to November and then again to late December, with little explanation for the repeated delays. This week, as news of the Kismayo gathering emerged, the commission reiterated its commitment to holding what it described as a “one-day election” in Mogadishu, signaling that the federal government remains determined to press ahead with its electoral timetable despite mounting political resistance.

Kismayo has increasingly become a focal point for opposition coordination, and the current meeting is expected to bring together a broad coalition of federal member state leaders, presidential contenders, and political heavyweights seeking to craft a unified response to the federal government’s electoral agenda. Officials are expected to discuss an alternative roadmap for the 2026 polls — one that challenges President Mohamud’s push for direct elections and reasserts the role of federal member states in shaping the country’s political future.

Sources familiar with the talks suggest that the leaders may propose a return to a negotiated electoral framework, a transitional arrangement, or a consensus-based model designed to prevent unilateral decisions by the federal government.

This dynamic is reminiscent of the past decade in Somali politics. Whenever a sitting administration aggressively pushes an electoral model it believes it can shape and engineer to its advantage, it often triggers significant political backlash. The result is usually a familiar cycle: protracted negotiations, Nairobi-based talks, the formation of broad opposition coalitions, and eventually a unified front that forces the incumbent leadership to compromise.

This pattern has repeated itself multiple times. It emerged in 2016 during the first term of the current president, when disputes over the electoral framework led to intense negotiations and coalition-building among opposition actors. A similar scenario unfolded again in 2022 under the administration of Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, when disagreements over the election process produced another round of political standoffs, and ultimately negotiated settlements.

The outcome of the Kismayo discussions could mark a turning point in Somalia’s election trajectory. With no agreed-upon electoral system and the president’s term approaching its end, the country risks sliding into a constitutional vacuum unless a political settlement is reached. Whether this gathering produces a unified opposition roadmap or further entrenches the divide remains to be seen, but it is clear that Somalia’s path to the 2026 elections is entering a decisive — and potentially turbulent — phase.