Somalia’s political clock is ticking, all eyes on May 10

On Saturday, Somalia’s President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, formally invited the opposition bloc, Somalia’s Future Council, to attend a high-level consultative meeting scheduled for May 10.

According to a statement issued by the presidency, the invitation follows a “series of recent consultations” held by the president with political leaders, traditional elders, and various segments of Somali society. The upcoming meeting is expected to focus on critical issues, including the “state-building process, electoral frameworks, national unity,” and the country’s broader political direction. The president said that the talks come at a “critical juncture” for the nation.

President Mohamud reiterated that the Federal Government remains committed to a political process rooted in “inclusivity and aimed at preserving the country’s unity, sovereignty, and statehood.”

The European Ambassador to Somalia, Francesca Di Mauro, has welcomed the president’s call. Di Mauro said, “We hope for a positive response and that a constructive way forward can be agreed, especially on elections.”

The call came just after the opposition bloc in Mogadishu held a meeting yesterday. Senior opposition officials, including former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and former prime ministers such as Hassan Ali Khaire, were present. They declared that President Mohamud would be treated as an “ordinary citizen” after May 15, when his mandate is set to end.

Just hours before the president called for inclusive dialogue, the coalition of Somali opposition politicians in Mogadishu issued a statement following their press briefing, accusing the federal government yet again of “undermining democratic processes, violating the constitution, and pursuing politically motivated security actions.”

The group said the country is facing “a dangerous political transition” marked by weakened governance, insecurity, and disregard for constitutional norms. They alleged that state institutions have been used for partisan purposes, including “arbitrary arrests, intimidation, and suppression of opposition voices.” They called for broad-based consultation, stating that decisions on constitutional amendments must involve “Somali society, political stakeholders, and legitimate institutions.”

On security, the group accused authorities of politicizing national forces, saying they are being used against political opponents rather than addressing security threats. It called for security agencies to remain neutral and operate within constitutional limits.

The opposition further condemned “property seizures, house demolitions,” and the alleged targeting of businesspeople, describing these actions as unlawful and harmful to economic stability. “We affirm that all land that was illegally allocated will be reclaimed,” the statement said adding that “special court will be established to handle crimes related to the looting of public property.”

The current presidential term is set to end in 15 days, creating a critical moment in the country’s political trajectory. However, a constitutional dispute has emerged regarding the length of that term. The newly approved constitution, passed by parliament and signed into law by the president, stipulates a five-year presidential term, in contrast to the four-year term outlined in the provisional constitution under which the current president was elected. Despite this legal shift, the new constitution has faced strong opposition and lacks consensus across the country.

In particular, two federal member states, Puntland and Jubbaland, have rejected the new constitutional framework, arguing that it was adopted without broad-based agreement. The controversy has also contributed to political instability, including the ousting of the South West State leader. Nevertheless, the current administration has maintained a firm position, asserting that the new constitution is valid and binding. On this basis, it insists that the presidential term should be extended to five years, meaning the incumbent intends to remain in office for an additional year.

Over the past year, numerous consultation meetings have been convened in an effort to resolve these disagreements. However, all of these discussions have ended without meaningful breakthroughs. The central point of contention remains the constitutional framework itself: the opposition continues to reject the new constitution outright and insists on reverting to the provisional constitution, while the government refuses to reconsider its position. Another major issue is the electoral model. For the past two years, the administration has been advocating for a one-person, one-vote (1P1V) system, a proposal that the opposition has also rejected. Although the opposition has not yet formally presented a detailed alternative, it has recently indicated that it will soon propose a new electoral model.

In light of this, the upcoming consultation meeting is expected to be decisive in determining the country’s political direction. With entrenched positions on both the constitutional question and the electoral system, the risk of continued deadlock remains high. The outcome of these discussions will likely shape not only the immediate resolution of the current impasse but also the broader stability of the country in the months ahead.