Somalia’s election drama - splits, deals, and the [long] road to 2026

Somalia's election season has now entered a chaotic phase. The once-unified Salvation Forum — a coalition of opposition heavyweights including former presidents and three prime ministers — has fractured after ex-PM Omar Sharmarke, former speakers Sharif Hassan and Mohamed Mursal, and ex-minister Dahir Gelle struck a deal with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

The agreement resets the electoral rules over which there has been serious dispute: parliament will elect the president; the president will appoint a prime minister subject to parliamentary approval (with MPs retaining the power to withdraw confidence); any political group with 10% of seats becomes a national party (with no limit to parties); and both sides pledge to “advance direct elections (one person, one vote).”

The deal marks a break from Hassan Sheikh’s earlier push for a nationwide one-person-one-vote presidential model and his controversial amendments expanding presidential powers. AU chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf hailed it as a “political achievement,” while IGAD’s Dr Workneh Gebeyehu called it “an important step towards advancing unity, stability, and reconciliation.”

Critics, however, see danger in the fine print. Afyare Elmi, a Somali academic, warned the government is “picking and choosing provisions” while leaving Somalia without a shared constitution, arguing the deal effectively locks in a term extension since current laws “cannot be implemented within eight months.” Puntland and Jubaland are still outside the talks and many opposition leaders still reject the president’s model outright, so the deal is a partial breakthrough at best. Analyst Hussein Sabrie added that the government’s record undermines its promises: despite passing a National Elections Act mandating one-person-one-vote, recent parliamentary seats, state assemblies, and even Mogadishu’s mayoral appointments were all filled without public input. “If direct elections were not used to choose” these posts, he asked, “how can there be confidence that one-person-one-vote elections will suddenly be conducted simultaneously” across the country?