Somalia’s election crisis takes a dark 1991 turn

Heavy clashes erupted this afternoon in parts of Mogadishu, including the Howlwadaag district, after tensions rose around a planned opposition protest.

Former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire, who had relocated to Howlwadaag earlier in the day in anticipation of the protest, said he came under attack. Former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed also said his residence had been attacked. The clashes were still ongoing as of writing. No deaths had been officially reported.

Somalia’s federal government has accused “armed opposition militia members” of attacking a “police facility” in Mogadishu’s Howlwadaag district and firing heavy weapons into nearby residential areas. The government said the “militia members had concealed their identities” and were organised by former Prime Minister Khaire. It said the group had been brought into the area the previous night and had directly targeted a facility belonging to the Howlwadaag District Police Station.

“The Federal Government of Somalia reiterates that it will not tolerate any attempt to undermine the security of the capital city, disrupt the work of the security forces, or create fear and instability among the population,” the government’s statement said.

Somalia’s police spokesperson, who briefed the media, accused “militia” of attacking police forces stationed at a checkpoint. He added that the “police forces responded to the attack.”

Somalia’s Minister of Defence Ahmed Moalim Fiqi likened the opposition to Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, which have been accused of committing genocide in parts of Sudan.

“Warlordism in the 21st century and the revival of the militia culture in 2026 are things whose time has passed,” Fiqi wrote.

In a post on his official social media account, former Prime Minister Khaire said the government had attacked his residence while a consultative meeting was underway there. He added that President Mohamud bears full responsibility for the attack. Khaire said there were fatalities and injuries, but did not provide casualty figures. The number of people killed or wounded could not be independently verified “We extend our deepest condolences to the families of the victims and pray for the swift recovery of the injured,” Khaire said.

He accused president Mohamud of trying to suppress peaceful assembly and said the attack was “a grave assault on the constitutional rights of Somali citizens.”

“Somalia’s future must be built on dialogue, consensus, and constitutional order — not force and repression,” Khaire said, adding that “those responsible would be held accountable.”

Former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, whose residence was also attacked, also spoke to the media while clashes were still ongoing. He said his security detail had been attacked and accused the government of carrying out “midnight raids.” He added that they would not be “intimidated” and would defend themselves.

Other opposition leaders, including former Prime Minister Abdi Farah Shirdon and former minister Abdirahman Abdishakur, have also condemned the attack.

“I strongly condemn the armed attack carried out tonight against his residence in Mogadishu. Incitement and division are not a solution,” Shirdon said in a statement.

Jubbaland authorities also released a statement “strongly condemning” the attack. In the statement, Jubbaland accused President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration of refusing to return to an agreed electoral roadmap and failing to build consensus around the country’s deepening election dispute.

The clashes come just a day before a planned protest by opposition groups in Mogadishu. It is the second protest planned by the opposition bloc in recent weeks. Last month, just days before the current administration’s mandate expired on May 15, opposition groups had also planned demonstrations in the capital. That protest was disrupted after government forces deployed heavily across Mogadishu, including around the residences of several opposition figures. Armored vehicles and security personnel were seen in key areas of the city, raising tensions further.

The current political deadlock has been building for months. At the center of the dispute are constitutional changes pushed by the current administration and the failure of political leaders to agree on a new electoral model. The administration has insisted on extending its mandate by one year under the new constitutional framework, despite strong rejection from opposition leaders and several key federal member states.

President Mohamud has said his mandate will expire in 2027, a position his opponents say contradicts the four-year term under which he was elected. Opposition leaders have rejected that position and have referred to him as a “former president,” arguing that his constitutional mandate has already ended.

There has also been no agreement on the electoral model. The administration has continued to push for a one-person, one-vote system. It recently organised such elections in South West State after military pressure helped remove the regional president and install a new political process. The elections there remain controversial and have been rejected by opposition groups.

Tensions in South West State have also escalated this week, after forces loyal to the ousted regional president launched attacks on the city. Opposition figures say the violence reflects the dangers of forcing through elections without consensus. They have rejected both the South West State election process and the wider electoral plans being advanced by President Mohamud’s administration.

Earlier this week, western embassies in Mogadishu and Nairobi called on Somalia’s political leaders to return to negotiations and settle on a clear plan for upcoming elections. In a joint statement issued Monday, several diplomatic missions, the European Union delegation, and the United Nations Transitional Mission in Somalia expressed concern about the country’s political climate and urged all parties to reach agreement in the interests of the Somali people. They also encouraged leaders to put the country’s stability first during what they described as a sensitive period, while avoiding any moves that could deepen political tensions.

After numerous talks, including one mediated by international partners, failed, rising tensions had been anticipated. Today’s clashes, though still ongoing, mark a worrying escalation. Details of casualties and injuries remain unknown. The president continues to insist on a one-year extension, while the opposition has rejected his legitimacy by referring to him as a former president. The constitution remains in limbo, and the country is effectively operating under two parallel constitutional claims. The electoral roadmap remains deeply contentious.