Somalia leaders fail to resolve election and constitution row

The much-anticipated talks between the Federal Government of Somalia and the opposition bloc collapsed on Friday after two consecutive days of negotiations failed to produce a breakthrough. The discussions, held in Mogadishu, were aimed at resolving the political dispute surrounding the country’s constitutional process, the presidential mandate, and the 2026 electoral roadmap. Despite intense consultations and growing pressure from both domestic stakeholders and international partners, the two sides remained divided on key issues, ultimately ending the talks without an agreement.

The latest round of negotiations brought together Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and leading opposition figures, including former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni. The talks were facilitated by members of the international community ahead of May 15, the date on which opposition leaders argue President Mahmoud’s mandate expires under the provisional constitution under which he was elected. However, the president maintains that his term extends to five years under the revised constitution recently pushed through and signed into law by his administration, a move that has been strongly contested by opposition groups and several federal member states.

Soon after the talks collapsed, Somalia’s federal government said it would move ahead with plans for a one-person, one-vote election. The government said Somalia had entered a “transition toward a democratic system” based on the principle of universal suffrage and reiterated its vow to holding “free, fair and transparent” elections.

The government said it had held several days of discussions with opposition members as part of broader consultations with political stakeholders and civil society groups. However, it accused opposition representatives of presenting proposals that “contradict the fundamental principles” of the constitutional and electoral process being pursued by the administration.

Later, speaking during celebrations marking Somali Youth Day, President Mohamud declared that his mandate is five years under the new constitution. “The Constitution is in effect,” President Mohamud said, adding that “the new Constitution that came into force states that the government’s term is five years.” “The terms of the President and the Parliament expire on May 15, 2027,” the president declared.

Addressing why the talks collapsed, the opposition bloc released a statement saying discussions between opposition figures and the federal government ended without agreement after President Mohamud’s administration rejected what it described as an inclusive framework for a political transition. The opposition group said it no longer recognized Mahmoud as president, arguing that his constitutional term expired on May 15 under Article 91 of Somalia’s provisional constitution.

The council also urged Somali security forces to uphold what it described as their constitutional responsibilities and said they should not take executive orders from the president, whom the group referred to as a “former president.” The council said it would pursue what it called peaceful and lawful measures to oppose any continuation of power without “legal legitimacy or political agreement.”

In a press briefing on Friday night, the opposition bloc stood firmly behind its position, accusing the president of undermining the talks and pushing the country into a deeper political crisis. Responding to President Mohamud’s declaration of a five-year term, former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed said that “no one can change the four years,” adding that President Mohamud’s “legal term has ended” and that he is “now a former president.”

Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni, one of the leading figures in the opposition bloc, accused the president of making “land grabs” to fund “constitutional changes.”

“The one dividing and tearing the country apart is the former president,” Deni said during the press briefing, adding that “he needs to be stopped from fragmenting the country.”

The collapse of the latest political talks marked the end of what many observers had considered the most hopeful opportunity for a breakthrough in Somalia’s constitutional and electoral deadlock. For more than a year, negotiations between the federal government, opposition groups, and key federal member states have repeatedly failed to produce consensus on the country’s political future.

The opposition and several regional administrations continue to reject the constitutional amendments made by President Mohamud, insisting that the provisional constitution remains the only legitimate legal framework until a broader national agreement is reached. Despite mounting pressure from both domestic and international actors, neither side has shown willingness to compromise.

President Mohamud’s administration has remained firm in defending both the constitutional changes and the electoral model it has promoted over the last year and a half. The federal government argues that Somalia cannot continue indefinitely under a provisional constitutional arrangement and that the country must eventually transition toward a more stable and democratic system. The incumbent administration maintains that reforming the electoral process is essential to ending the cycle of indirect elections and elite-driven political bargaining that has dominated Somalia’s politics for decades. President Mahamoud reiterated this position in his latest public address. However, critics argue that the reforms are being pursued without sufficient consultation and are designed in ways that could consolidate power around the presidency and weaken the fragile federal balance that underpins Somalia’s political order.

The disagreement has damaged relations between the federal government in Mogadishu and two major federal member states, both of which have suspended cooperation with the federal government for more than two years. The political fallout has, at times, escalated into direct confrontations between federal and regional forces, particularly in Jubbaland. Tensions between Mogadishu and Jubbaland have repeatedly raised fears of wider instability, especially in areas where competing security structures including Gedo region operate side by side.

The political friction also contributed to the controversial removal of the South West regional president Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen, who continues to claim he remains the legitimate president of the state despite being deposed following heavy federal intervention. The federal government deployed military forces to the regional capital, ultimately forcing the regional administration from power.

Following the takeover, the federal government organized elections that critics described as controversial and lacking credibility, resulting in a landslide victory for President Mohamud’s political party.

At the heart of the current crisis are two divisive issues: the new constitution and the electoral roadmap. The constitutional amendments remain highly contested because major federal member states and opposition groups reject both the process and the substance of the changes. Their objections stem from several concerns. First, they argue that the drafting and approval process lacked broad national consultation and excluded important stakeholders. Second, they believe the amendments were structured to politically benefit the incumbent president and his administration. Third, critics fear the reforms could weaken Somalia’s clan-based power-sharing arrangements and political agreements that have shaped the country’s post-conflict governance system for years. These concerns have made consensus increasingly difficult to achieve.

Although the latest round of talks was initially welcomed as a possible opportunity for compromise, especially because it was strongly supported by the international community, its collapse has instead increased fears of further fragmentation and political uncertainty. Critics argue that the continued deadlock could lead to contested legitimacy and broader instability ahead of the elections. With no agreement now reached between the federal government, opposition leaders, and federal member states, Somalia faces a critical moment in its political transition. Meaningful dialogue and compromise remain highly uncertain, and the country is entering yet another period of constitutional uncertainty and political confrontation that could plunge it into a deep political crisis.