Somalia government moves on elections as rival regional plans emerge

In a statement released on Monday, Somalia’s federal government announced that the country is entering a new phase of national elections, emphasizing that the process will be “inclusive, transparent, and grounded in constitutional principles.” The announcement reflects the government’s continued push to advance its electoral agenda, which it says is aimed at strengthening democratic governance and expanding public participation across the country.

“The electoral process will be direct, free, and fair,” the statement said. The Ministry added that institutions responsible for managing the elections are expected to operate strictly within the established legal framework. However, despite outlining these principles, the government did not provide a clear timeline for when the elections will take place.

Later the same day, the Ministry issued a second, more pointed statement addressing the political situation in South West State. In the statement, the Minister said the current regional leadership lacks legitimacy because its mandate has expired.

The Ministry added that local and regional administrative officials should continue performing their duties until new leadership is appointed “in accordance with the law.” It said it would oversee implementation of the directive and instructed relevant institutions to comply in coordination with security agencies. The measures appear to be in direct conflict with recent changes made by the regional president Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed, who has reshuffled administrative and security positions within the state.

The statement coincided with a separate announcement from the leadership of South West State, where President Abdiaziz appointed a nine-member electoral committee. The committee is expected to oversee preparations for upcoming regional elections, signaling the state’s intention to proceed with its own electoral process. The move reflects growing tensions between the regional administration and the federal government, as both sides is pursuing parallel, and potentially conflicting, political agendas.

This development is widely seen as a direct challenge to the electoral model promoted by the federal government in Mogadishu. Over the past three years, the current administration has pushed for constitutional changes and a new electoral framework, which it has formally signed into law. However, these efforts have faced resistance from several federal member states, which argue that the process lacked sufficient consultation and consensus. As a result, the country has effectively entered a constitutional impasse.

The federal government’s adoption of these constitutional changes has created a situation in which two parallel constitutional frameworks now exist. While federal authorities recognize the amended constitution, at least three federal member states and major opposition groups reject the changes and continue to adhere to the provisional constitution that has governed the country for the past 15 years.

Relations between Mogadishu and key regional states, including Puntland and Jubbaland, have remained strained throughout the reform process. At times, these tensions have escalated into political deadlock and, in some cases, localized conflict, particularly in parts of Jubbaland.

The recent decision by South West State to sever ties with the federal government and reject the constitutional amendments marks another significant challenge to federal authority. By aligning with Puntland and Jubbaland in opposing Mogadishu’s approach, South West State adds weight to a growing bloc of dissenting regions, intensifying the national political standoff. This development has heightened political uncertainty and raised fears of potential confrontation between federal forces and regional authorities.

Tensions on the ground have been rising over the past week. Reports indicate increased troop deployments by federal forces in parts of South West State, alongside mobilization efforts by federal-aligned officials within the region. South West leaders have characterized these actions as attempts to pressure the state government and undermine its authority. At the same time, both sides appear to be making strategic adjustments within their security structures to consolidate influence. The establishment of the electoral committee by South West State underlines its determination to challenge Mogadishu’s electoral plans.

The situation has placed the region on the brink of potential conflict at a time when Somalia’s broader electoral future remains uncertain. The mandate of President Mahmoud is set to expire in two months, while the terms of both houses of the federal parliament will end within a month. Meanwhile, the amended constitution stipulates a five-year presidential term, in contrast to the four-year term outlined in the provisional constitution. The existence of these competing constitutional frameworks leaves the country in a state of uncertainty, with developments in South West State risking further instability and possible violence.