Somalia faces political paralysis and resurgent insurgency as donor patience wears thin – Crisis Group

Somalia is facing deepening political divisions and a resurgent insurgency as international donors grow increasingly frustrated, according to the latest Crisis Group watch List, released on October 16.

The Watch List — one of the International Crisis Group’s flagship publications — identifies countries at risk of conflict escalation and highlights opportunities for international actors, particularly the European Union (EU), to support peace efforts. The autumn 2025 edition lists Somalia among the countries of serious concern.

For over two years, Somalia’s electoral process has been one of the country’s most contentious political issues. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has pushed for a direct one-person-one-vote election, moving away from the indirect clan-based system that has defined Somali politics for decades. Mohamud has also amended the constitution and electoral laws. However, opposition leaders accuse him of attempting to manipulate constitutional and electoral rules to consolidate or extend his power.

The president’s push for constitutional changes and his proposed electoral framework have also deepened tensions with some federal member states, including Puntland and Jubbaland. These disagreements have led to sporadic clashes, particularly in Jubbaland, where the standoff between the federal government and Jubbaland leader Ahmed Islam Ahmed “Madobe” remains unresolved.

A recent meeting between the two sides ended without progress, raising fears of renewed conflict. Meanwhile, opposition groups in Mogadishu continue to reject the president’s proposed election model, leaving the roadmap to the 2026 polls highly uncertain.

“Time is running out for the government and opposition to agree on a workable voting system if the elections are to proceed on schedule,” the Crisis Group warned.

The resulting impasse has stalled key reforms the country urgently needs, as the political crisis remains entrenched. The Crisis Group notes that the deadlock has undermined the government’s efforts to build a united front against Al-Shabaab, which has intensified its attacks and regained control of several areas in the Middle Shabelle and Hiraan regions.

Since early this year, the group has made significant territorial gains, capturing strategic towns and escalating its assaults. In one of its most daring attacks, Al-Shabaab recently targeted a heavily guarded site in Mogadishu, striking the National Intelligence and Security Agency’s (NISA) main maximum-security prison.

The ICG report also warns that the militant group’s resurgence comes amid a decline in international development and humanitarian spending, even though these cuts are “not directly linked” to the government’s setbacks.

“European countries that have heavily invested in Somalia’s recovery over the last two decades are wondering whether their billions of dollars have been well spent,” the report notes. The ICG urged the EU to recalibrate its engagement, intensify diplomacy between Mogadishu and the federal member states, continue funding for the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), and update its security and governance support to better reflect local realities.

The report has not been well received by officials aligned with the government. In a commentary published by the Somali National News Agency (SONNA), a former deputy director of NISA and vocal supporter of the administration dismissed the Crisis Group’s findings as “biased, misinformed, and driven by vested interests.”

With funding for the (AUSSOM) dwindling, Al-Shabaab gaining momentum, and political rivalries paralyzing governance, the ICG warns that Somalia’s future — though “collapse is not imminent” — remains “increasingly shaky.”