Renewed clashes raise fears of escalation in Northern Ethiopia

Renewed clashes have been reported in northern Ethiopia, heightening fears of a return to large-scale conflict and raising concerns about the collapse of the fragile peace agreement signed in 2022. The fighting follows months of mounting tension and mutual accusations between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government, with observers warning that the situation could spiral if de-escalation efforts fail.

The TPLF has accused the federal government of violating the Pretoria peace agreement, formally known as the Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement. According to TPLF leaders, Addis Ababa has failed to fulfill key commitments under the deal, undermining efforts to stabilize the region and deepening mistrust between the two sides.

The federal government, in turn, has leveled its own accusations against the TPLF, alleging the misuse of federal funds and collusion with Eritrea to launch attacks against federal forces. These claims have further strained relations.

Amid rising tensions and renewed fighting in disputed areas, Ethiopian Airlines has cancelled all flights between Addis Ababa and the Tigray region. The move comes as reports emerge of clashes in western Tigray and new military movements in the south, developments that analysts say pose a serious threat to the peace deal.

The African Union said on Friday it was closely monitoring the situation and urged all parties to preserve gains made under the peace agreement. AU Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf expressed “deep concern” over recent developments and called on both the federal government and the TPLF to exercise restraint and resolve outstanding issues through dialogue.

“The preservation of the hard-won gains achieved under the AU-led Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement remains paramount,” Youssouf said in a statement. The AU reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the implementation of the agreement, adding that its High-Level Panel on Ethiopia stands ready to intensify efforts to facilitate dialogue and confidence-building measures.

Meanwhile, Getachew Reda, former spokesperson of the TPLF and former president of the Tigray interim administration, issued a public appeal to halt the fighting, warning that continued conflict is destroying the future of Tigray’s youth.

In a message posted on social media, Reda wrote: “Stop the war: Save the youth!” He accused both political and military leaders of leading the population down a destructive path that has already exacted a heavy toll on Tigray over the past four decades.

Reda criticized Tigrayan leaders for repeatedly mobilizing young people into wars that, he said, have yielded no meaningful outcomes. He rejected claims that continued fighting against the federal government is necessary for survival, arguing that such narratives have only brought devastation. “Under the current leadership, victory is impossible, and even good opportunities are lost,” he said.

He singled out the so-called “Agazi” military leadership, accusing senior commanders of using young fighters as “cannon fodder” while enjoying personal privileges. Reda also warned against aligning with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, whom he accused of manipulating Tigray into sacrificing its youth.

Calling for a fundamental shift in strategy and ideology, Reda urged Tigray’s leaders to pursue constitutional rebuilding and peaceful struggle rather than renewed war. “Our victory should be achieved through peace,” he said.

The previous war in Tigray left hundreds of thousands dead, displaced millions, and shattered livelihoods across northern Ethiopia, while pushing the country to the brink of economic and humanitarian collapse. Aid agencies have repeatedly warned that even limited renewed fighting could quickly spiral into a mass humanitarian emergency, cutting off assistance to already vulnerable communities facing hunger, disease, and displacement. With Ethiopia entering a sensitive election period, renewed conflict in the north risks not only reversing fragile peace gains, but also destabilizing the broader political process, deepening ethnic divisions, and placing additional strain on a country still struggling to recover from years of war.