Power currents in a divided sea

The Red Sea, one of the world’s most strategically vital waterways, has emerged in recent years as a hotspot for global competition. Stretching roughly 2,250 kilometers from the Suez Canal in the north to the Bab El Mandeb Strait in the south, this narrow corridor of water is far more than a geographical feature, it is a critical artery of global trade and a theater of complex geopolitical maneuvering.

Through the Bab El Mandeb Strait, between 12% and 15% of global seaborne trade passes annually, translating into hundreds of billions of dollars in goods and nearly 30% of global container traffic. Its strategic location connects Africa, Asia, and Europe, making it crucial not only for the countries along its shores but also for powers far beyond the region.

The Red Sea’s prominence in global news has recently surged, particularly following Houthi attacks in solidarity with the Palestinian cause after Israel’s war in Gaza, signaling that non-state actors as well as states see the Red Sea as a platform for influence. Today, a complex web of regional, extra-regional, and global actors’ jostles for control or leverage over this corridor, shaping both local security dynamics and broader international politics.

The book Power Competition in the Red Sea: Testing the Post-Liberal International Order, by international relations scholar Federico Donelli, is a timely and insightful contribution to understanding this intricate region. Donelli blends theoretical frameworks with empirical case studies to produce a comprehensive analysis of how various actors pursue influence and how their strategies intersect. His central argument situates the Red Sea firmly within global power competition, illustrating that its maritime disputes and onshore conflicts cannot be understood in isolation from wider geopolitical transformations.

The first part of the book, spanning five chapters, lays out its theoretical foundations and situates the Red Sea within the context of intensifying global competition. This contest unfolds as the liberal international order, built on political and economic liberalism and normative institutionalism, enters a period of flux, challenged by both internal pressures and the rise of new powers.

In his analysis, Donelli draws on neoclassical realism, which examines how material power — such as economic and military capabilities — interacts with leaders’ perceptions, beliefs, and domestic political pressures in shaping foreign policy. He also incorporates insights from the Copenhagen School of security studies, which emphasizes the evolving nature of regional security and the social construction of threats.

By combining these perspectives, he conceptualizes the Red Sea not simply as a body of water but as a connected zone of overlapping maritime and land-based interests, where coastal and hinterland conflicts interact. This approach underscores the interdependence of regional security and the absence of any single dominant power, owing to the Red Sea’s intrinsic importance for trade and its extrinsic value as a projection space for external powers. The book distinguishes between land-based conflict formations and maritime regime security, offering a clear typology for understanding the region’s layered vulnerabilities.

In the second part, also comprising five chapters, Donelli turns to the actors shaping Red Sea politics. He analyzes the strategies and objectives of regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Israel, macro-regional actors including the UAE, Qatar, Iran, and Turkey, and global players like the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union. Grounded in a neoclassical realist framework and the paradigm of regional security complexes, the book assesses not only the military and economic capacities of these actors, but also their political systems, threat perceptions, and strategic goals.

This multi-layered analysis helps explain why the Red Sea has become a site of intense and unpredictable competition, where maritime chokepoints, foreign bases, and infrastructure investments form the currency of power. For instance, Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the Red Sea is shaped by a combination of its rivalry with Iran, concerns over maritime security in its southern approaches, and broader ambitions to project power beyond the Arabian Peninsula. Similarly, Iran’s engagement, including its support for Houthi forces in Yemen, is framed by its desire to challenge Saudi dominance and secure a foothold along a critical maritime artery.

In the final section, containing two chapters, Donelli examines how these actors interact amid regional crises, using Ethiopia’s war in Tigray as a case study. He situates these developments within the erosion of the liberal international order and the emergence of more unilateral, transactional politics. This framework illuminates how local disputes, whether over water resources, maritime security, or territorial sovereignty, are entangled with global rivalries. Donelli stresses that regional actors are not mere spectators in Red Sea affairs.

Despite its strengths, the book leaves some questions unanswered, like the criteria used for including or excluding countries in its case study. For instance, Egypt is an active and increasingly assertive player in the Red Sea, yet it receives limited attention. The country has expanded its naval capabilities, established new military bases along the Red Sea coast, and forged trilateral alliances with Somalia and Eritrea, all of which have significant implications for regional security. Specifically, Egypt inaugurated the massive Berenice combined forces military base on the Red Sea in 2020, outlining its strategic vision through the Red Sea Initiative for Regional Economy.

Similarly, African regional institutions such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and regional frameworks like the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Task Force are underexplored. IGAD, for instance, has developed frameworks including a Special Envoy-Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Somalia (RESGAS) and is working toward a Common IGAD Position (CIP) and Regional Plan of Action (ARP). Their potential role in mitigating conflict or facilitating cooperation is acknowledged in the book but not examined in depth, leaving a gap in understanding the full spectrum of regional governance mechanisms.

Although various actors in the Red Sea region pursue different motives and strategies, yet another shortcoming of the book is its limited treatment of crisis spillover and regional entanglement. This challenge has grown more acute since the 2017 intra-Gulf crisis, the intensifying Iran–Saudi rivalry, and the rise of the Houthis and the so-called “Axis of Resistance.” These developments have compounded conflicts such as the dispute around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Somaliland–Somalia tensions, the Yemeni civil war, and the broader U.S.–China competition. Overlapping memberships, transnational spillovers, and the sustained involvement of external powers have further deepened the region’s interconnectedness.

While these factors help explain how local crises are linked, they also risk encouraging one-size-fits-all policy approaches that blur the distinct causes of each conflict and impose overly uniform solutions.

In conclusion, Power Competition in the Red Sea is a significant and much-needed contribution to the study of a region that remains underexplored despite its central role in global politics. Federico Donelli offers a clear, detailed, and theoretically grounded account of why the Red Sea matters, who competes for influence there, and how local, regional, and global interests intersect. While gaps remain — particularly regarding Egypt’s role and the contributions of African regional institutions — the book succeeds in connecting the Red Sea’s shifting power dynamics to the wider transformation of the global order.

For policymakers, scholars, and readers seeking to grasp the complexities of this strategic maritime corridor, Donelli’s work provides both depth and clarity. It not only illuminates the competing interests shaping the Red Sea today but also offers a conceptual framework for understanding how such regional contests reflect, and in turn reshape, the evolving architecture of world politics.