New global index ranks Somalia among worst-performing states

A new report produced by the Bertelsmann Stiftung as part of its Transformation Index (BTI) 2026 — a global assessment that evaluates political transformation, economic transformation and governance performance in 137 countries — has been released, painting a grim picture of Somalia’s current state.

The report concludes that the country remains among the weakest-performing states globally in terms of democratic transformation, rule of law and institutional stability. Somalia received a Status Index score of 1.80, ranking 133rd out of 137 countries assessed, while its political transformation score stood at 1.72 and economic transformation at 1.89. Governance performance ranked slightly better at 2.48, though still placing Somalia near the bottom internationally.

A key theme throughout the report is the growing political fragmentation within Somalia’s federal system. The BTI notes that constitutional reforms initiated during the review period triggered major disputes between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and federal member states, particularly Puntland and Jubaland. Puntland withdrew from the federal framework after objecting to constitutional amendments that expanded presidential authority and altered the electoral structure.

According to the report, unresolved disagreements over “the division of responsibilities, and disputes over power and resource-sharing” continue to undermine political cohesion and weaken the federal system.

The constitutional amendments approved in March 2024 proposed direct presidential elections in 2026, replacing the current clan-based indirect voting system. The revised framework, which was passed by parliament and subsequently signed into law by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, also extended the presidential term from four to five years and expanded presidential powers.

However, as has been unfolding over the last year and a half, and as the BTI report noted, opposition groups rejected the entire process, resulting in two federal member states effectively severing ties with the federal government. This has pushed the country into a constitutional crisis. Two constitutional interpretations are now effectively operating in parallel: the Provisional Constitution, which Jubaland, Puntland and opposition groups insist remains the sole legitimate constitutional framework, and the new constitution signed into law by President Mohamud.

The BTI concludes that these events exposed “ongoing political fragmentation and the fragility of Somalia’s federal system.”

The country’s security environment remains fragmented among federal forces, regional forces, clan militias and international troops, often operating without effective coordination. The report notes that the Somali National Army and police forces remain heavily dependent on international funding, training and logistical support.

The BTI, echoing concerns raised by many observers over recent years, identifies al-Shabaab as the most significant threat to Somalia’s stability. Although a military offensive launched in 2022 initially weakened the group, with government forces capturing large parts of Hirshabelle and parts of Galmudug, the campaign later lost momentum amid constitutional disputes and disagreements over elections. As a result, al-Shabaab regrouped, recaptured territory and intensified attacks across the country. The report noted that in the first five months of 2025 alone, more than 155 improvised explosive device (IED) attacks reportedly killed around 300 people.

The report further argues that Somalia’s anti-al-Shabaab strategy contributed to instability by empowering clan militias, which altered local power balances and fueled inter-clan violence. According to the BTI, support for clan militias “fueled an arms race among clans and led to inter-clan fighting in 2024.”

On rule of law, the BTI delivers one of its harshest assessments. It states there is “no rule of law nationwide.” The report also notes that arbitrary arrests, prolonged detention and political interference remain widespread. Executions have increased significantly in recent years. The BTI records 38 executions in 2023, compared with 11 in 2020.

Corruption is described as endemic throughout Somalia’s political and economic systems. The report states that corruption influences elections, public contracts, land transfers and aid distribution. Somalia continues to rank among the most corrupt countries globally. The BTI notes that accountability mechanisms remain weak and prosecutions are rare, adding that “corrupt officials largely enjoy impunity.”

The report also highlights widespread human rights violations committed by multiple actors, including security forces, intelligence agencies and al-Shabaab. Women and girls remain particularly vulnerable. Somalia ranks near the bottom globally on gender equality indicators, while legal protections against gender-based violence remain weak. The report criticizes the penal code for treating sexual violence as a violation of “modesty and sexual honor” rather than bodily integrity.

Economically, the BTI acknowledges signs of recovery after years of drought, flooding and environmental shocks that devastated agriculture and infrastructure. Somalia’s GDP rose from $10.9 billion in 2023 to $12.1 billion in 2024, with growth estimated at 4%. However, the economy remains heavily dependent on imports, remittances and international aid. The BTI notes that Somalia’s trade networks are controlled by “a small group of powerful businessmen” closely linked to political elites.

The report comes at a time when Somalia is facing multiple, cross-cutting crises. The country is now effectively operating under two parallel constitutional interpretations. Elections have remained elusive. The political crisis has also deepened in the capital, Mogadishu. Just yesterday, the opposition organized protests that reportedly resulted in the death of one person and injuries to several others. The government also blocked key opposition leaders from participating in the demonstrations.

At the same time, key Federal Member States remain locked in a political deadlock with the federal government, whose mandate is set to expire within days under the provisions of the Provisional Constitution. Together, these developments have pushed the country into an unprecedented political and constitutional crisis.