Mozambique is preparing to celebrate the 50th anniversary of its independence, achieved on 25 June 1975, amid an atmosphere of political tension that raises a number of decisive questions about the country's future direction. The occasion coincides with the independence of other former Portuguese colonies in Africa in the same year, reflecting the shared nature of the anti-colonial resistance in these countries, in the face of a common enemy and following a decade of armed struggle.

Another shared aspect is that, despite the vast geographical distances and territorial discontinuity, the various liberation movements across these nations remained in dialogue with one another, while simultaneously establishing external alliances aligned with the socialist bloc, in the context of the cold war. As a result, once liberation had been achieved, the movements leading the anti-imperial fight established one-party regimes inspired by Marxist-Leninist principles, which remained in place until the early 1990s, when they began to adopt liberal democratic systems in response to the structural adjustment policies imposed by the World Bank and the IMF.

The occasion of the fiftieth anniversary of the independence of the so-called Lusophone Africa therefore presents an inevitable opportunity for reflection and stocktaking of the historical experience, both within each country and collectively. In addition to the official celebrations, there will almost certainly be artistic events, academic seminars and, possibly, protests—since it is impossible to ignore the harsh reality of the appalling living conditions in these nations, which are among the most impoverished in the world.

The immediate cause of the political crisis was the electoral process of October 2024, which, for the seventh time, handed victory to the Frelimo party, amid numerous allegations and indications of fraud.

Although the political history of the PALOPs (Países Africanos de Língua Oficial Portuguesa, or Portuguese-Speaking African Countries) largely follows a more or less common script, developments have also taken place according to each country’s own idiosyncrasies, with political and institutional instability standing out in some cases. This is particularly true of Angola, Guinea-Bissau and Mozambique, whose recent post-election crisis has drawn international attention—especially from within the region—due to its structural nature, which reflects broader systemic problems.

The immediate cause of the political crisis was the electoral process of October 2024, which, for the seventh time, handed victory to the Frelimo party, amid numerous allegations and indications of fraud. In fact, such claims are recurring and have been widely reported and documented since the first multiparty elections in 1994. What is new, however, is that this time the challenge has not only come from the opposition but also from various sectors of civil society and even from international organisations, which have previously been somewhat complacent in the face of blatant irregularities.

In his book, Liberation Movements in Power, Roger Southall said Frelimo was among several parties across Africa that begun to imbibe “post-liberation pathologies”.

For example, in a report released at the end of January, the European Union pointed to the occurrence of “irregularities and discrepancies that affect the integrity of the electoral process and results in the country.” The backdrop to these recurring accusations of electoral fraud is the fact that, due to a certain inertia of history, the Frelimo party continues to exert near-total control over state institutions, having remained in power since independence. In doing so, it has acquired the ability to instrumentalise these institutions to its own advantage, rendering the political contest manifestly unequal.

This “inertia” stems from the fact that, since independence and over the decades that followed, the Frelimo regime succeeded in generating substantial popular consensus, anchored in the legitimacy it gained through the struggle for national liberation. In his book, Liberation Movements in Power, Roger Southall said Frelimo was among several parties across Africa that begun to imbibe “post-liberation pathologies”. “They have become authoritarian, intolerant, careless if not actively abusive of human rights, and ironically, often racist. Worse, they are also seen as having become corrupt, consumptionist, classist and anti-developmental,” he wrote. 

A new government at old crossroads

Faced with the impasse, various voices from Mozambican civil society have suggested that the new government take a series of actions to overcome the crisis. However, these expectations—such as the formation of an inclusive, unified government and engagement in dialogue with the main opposition leader—have not been met. On the contrary, the signals conveyed by the new leader (who is also president of the party) point to the consolidation of Frelimo’s hegemonic power, with its cadres occupying all ministerial posts, alongside an absolute majority in parliament further reinforced by the election results.

In contrast to the ruling party’s relative social isolation, Venâncio Mondlane, a leading opposition figure—currently in the process of founding his own party—has continued his internal and external mobilisation efforts, even after the self-imposed exile following the October elections and his triumphant return to the capital in January. On that occasion, he proclaimed himself “president of the republic” and began issuing “presidential decrees” from his “parallel government” as a form of pressure on the official administration to adopt measures with broad popular support, though these challenge the institutional order.

Leaving legal debates aside, the fact remains that many of these “decrees” were temporarily accepted by a significant portion of the population, resulting in heightened social tension and outbreaks of political violence. The government characterised these acts as “vandalism”, while the opposition framed them as legitimate expressions of civil disobedience, in response to the harsh living conditions imposed by what they describe as an illegitimate government. The first few months of the year have thus been marked by considerable social instability: traffic bans in various parts of the country, destruction of public and private infrastructure, work stoppages, suspension of commercial activity, and more—all met with heavy-handed police repression.

In a country with fragile economic conditions, institutions and infrastructure, the continuation of such a state of affairs could easily spiral into ungovernability. This, in turn, raises another kind of debate: who stands to benefit from such instability? In this context, widespread accusations have emerged suggesting that Mondlane is serving foreign interests, based on his ideological alignment with right-wing—and even far-right—factions internationally. Taken together, these suspicions evoke the phenomenon of “colour revolutions”, such as the so-called Arab Spring, which swept across countries in North Africa during the 2010s. In this light, the use of social media as the principal tool for communication and mobilisation is another source of concern, fuelling speculation that Mozambique may be following the same destabilisation playbook seen in other Global South nations, in favour of Western interests.

What and how?

In any case, the pressures exerted by external interests have always been part of the equation in the exercise of power—most acutely in the most economically dependent nations. The key question, then, is how governments respond and engage with this reality, taking into account their own interests as sovereign states and, above all, the living conditions of their populations. From this latter perspective, the fiftieth anniversary of independence inevitably raises the question: what, exactly, are we celebrating? In other words, it calls for a reflection on what tangible benefits political emancipation has brought to society as a whole.

While it is important to acknowledge the constraints imposed by a global economic order that remains unfavourable to countries of the Global South, local governments cannot be absolved of their responsibility for the well-being of their citizens. Among the many factors contributing to the current deficits in this regard in countries like Mozambique, the natural wear and tear resulting from five uninterrupted decades of power by a single political force is certainly one of the most significant.

While it is important to acknowledge the constraints imposed by a global economic order that remains unfavourable to countries of the Global South, local governments cannot be absolved of their responsibility for the well-being of their citizens.

Recognising this reality becomes particularly relevant at a time when the winds of the Sahel are blowing from the north of the continent, demanding liberation from neocolonial domination—still exercised by former western imperial powers, often in collusion with Africa’s conservative elites. It is precisely this final element of the equation that should receive special attention in public debate within African societies: the internal political dynamics that enable neocolonialism to persist.

If, on one hand, the growing popularity of Ibrahim Traoré among African youth signals the emergence of a new political consciousness, on the other, it may be perceived as a threat to entrenched postcolonial power structures. This is particularly true in the continent’s southernmost region, where the ruling parties of the historic liberation movements—Frelimo, MPLA, ANC, ZANU-PF, SWAPO—are experiencing an unprecedented legitimacy crisis stemming from their prolonged grip on power.

Beyond the question of what to celebrate, it is equally vital to reflect on how to celebrate the milestone of fifty years of liberation from colonial rule. As official preparations are already under way, the current situation of crisis and instability raises the broader issue of social inclusion. The challenge lies in ensuring that the celebration resonates meaningfully with the whole of society—something that remains difficult given the fragmented state of the social fabric today.

Now more than ever, the need for open and inclusive dialogue has become imperative—not only in the context of the planned commemorations on 25 June 2025, but as a tool for building solid and sustainable long-term prospects for the country’s future. In short, the major challenge facing Mozambican society lies in the ability of its historically authoritarian and centralised political system to promote genuine participation and inclusion of civil society in the decision-making processes that will shape the nation’s destiny.

• This article was translated from Portuguese and adapted from Africa is a Country.