Mogadishu votes, BUT who’s buying it?

Mogadishu is set to hold a controversial election tomorrow, marking the long-awaited local council polls across the capital’s districts. If it proceeds, the vote would represent a historic milestone: for the first time in more than five decades, residents of Somalia’s capital are expected to directly elect their local representatives. However, the process has been overshadowed by accusations of lacking legitimacy, with critics describing it as a one-sided initiative strongly backed by the administration of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

The election was originally scheduled for October, then postponed to November and later to December. It will cover 16 districts of Mogadishu, with candidates competing for local council seats. According to the National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC), more than 500,000 voters are expected to participate.

Earlier this week, Somalia’s police announced security measures, including a city-wide lockdown on election day. Movement of vehicles and pedestrians will be heavily restricted. Authorities say nearly 10,000 police officers have been deployed to secure the vote.

Despite these preparations, the electoral process has drawn opposition. Speaking to the press today, former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed described the procedures as “unfortunate,” criticizing what he called a “rigid and exclusionary voter registration process.” He argued that the system lacks legitimacy and falls short of broad-based consensus.

Former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire echoed these concerns, accusing the administration of engineering a “concocted electoral process” that he characterized as “inconsistent and rigged.” According to Khaire, the framework is deliberately designed to favor the ruling authorities rather than ensure a level playing field for all political stakeholders. Both leaders also criticized the NIEC, accusing it of failing to maintain neutrality and alleging that it operates under the influence of the incumbent administration.

Today’s press statement follow an earlier communiqué issued this week after major opposition figures, under the umbrella of the Somali Future Council, met in the port city of Kismayo. The conference brought together some of Somalia’s most prominent political actors, including former presidents, federal member state leaders, parliamentarians, and civil society representatives.

The opposition communiqué accused President Mohamud’s administration of systemic failures. It alleged that the president has undermined Somalia’s federal system by unilaterally altering the Provisional Constitution, and raised concerns over security, claiming the government has abandoned the fight against Al-Shabaab. The opposition further argued that these failures have contributed to worsening economic and humanitarian conditions, pointing to corruption scandals such as the “illegal sale of public land.”

Despite their criticism, opposition leaders signaled willingness to engage in dialogue with the president to establish what they described as a “transparent, consensus-based electoral process.” However, they firmly rejected the ongoing election process, arguing that it is premature and lacks political legitimacy. Although President Mohamud has publicly expressed readiness for talks, he has proceeded with the contested elections.

Why is the administration pressing ahead? In 2023, President Mohamud announced his determination to end Somalia’s indirect, clan-based electoral system and transition to universal suffrage. His prime’s minister’s cabinet endorsed it by approving legislation aimed at enabling direct presidential elections by 2026.

Momentum appeared to build in 2024. On October 30, the presidents of several federal member states, together with president Mahmoud, reached what was described as a landmark agreement to hold the country’s first one-person, one-vote elections. The deal established an electoral framework for local, regional, and municipal elections, with plans to extend the model to parliamentary and presidential contests.

The Federal Parliament reinforced this transition by passing key enabling legislation. However, by late 2024, the process began to unravel. Opposition resistance intensified, and several federal member states chiefly Puntland and Jubbaland rejected the framework outright. On April 13, the government launched a voter registration campaign in Mogadishu, positioning local elections as the first test of the new system. Parliamentary and presidential elections were tentatively scheduled.

These efforts ultimately stalled as political consensus collapsed. Subsequent attempts to revive the process through rescheduling also failed. No agreement was reached on the electoral model, and tomorrow’s planned election, and the administration’s insistence on proceeding, stems from this prolonged political deadlock.

President Mohamud is no stranger to Somalia’s thorny electoral politics. He rose to power twice through indirect elections and lost once under the same system. During his first term, he attempted to introduce direct voting but was forced into negotiated compromises due to opposition resistance. Previous administrations similarly failed to implement universal suffrage, reverting to indirect elections in 2022 after months of political stalemate. A widely held belief among Somali political actors has long been that the country is not yet prepared for universal suffrage due to security, institutional, and political constraints.

Despite these realities, President Mohamud has pressed ahead with his reform agenda, insisting on elections that many critics view as premature. If voting proceeds in Mogadishu, the ruling party is widely expected to secure sweeping victories, outcomes that could further inflame political tensions. Two federal member states have already rejected the president’s proposed constitutional changes and cut ties with the federal government.

These contentious elections come as Somalia faces a multidimensional crisis. Al-Shabaab continues to expand its territorial influence, international funding is declining, and political polarization is deepening. In this environment, observers warn that unilateral electoral moves risk undermining both legitimacy and stability. While the president’s determination may yield short-term political gains, it could plunge the country into prolonged turmoil.

The international dimension adds further complexity. The United Nations Security Council recently passed a resolution redefining its engagement in Somalia. It approved the extension of the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) until the end of 2026, allowing more than 11,000 personnel, including police units, to remain in the country. At the same time, the Council set a clear timeline for winding down the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS), which is scheduled to close by October 2026.

Against this backdrop, the Mogadishu election is poised to push Somalia into a far deeper political crisis. By proceeding without broad consensus, the vote risks accelerating institutional fragmentation, deepening polarization between the federal government and member states, and eroding what remains of public trust in the political system. Critics argue that the administration appears unwilling to seriously engage with the scale of the crisis such a move could trigger. Instead of resolving Somalia’s long-standing electoral deadlock, the election is likely to entrench it, placing the country’s entire political framework into a new and uncertain phase of instability.