Mogadishu pushes ahead with disputed elections amid constitutional crisis

On Monday, Somalia’s opposition coalition, the Somali Future Council, announced that talks with the Federal Government of Somalia had collapsed without reaching an agreement. The Council accused the government of pursuing “unilateral constitutional amendments” and exerting “political and security pressure during negotiations” aimed at resolving electoral disputes. According to the bloc, it entered the discussions in “good faith,” seeking compromise amid ongoing humanitarian crises, economic pressures, and political instability. However, it alleged that the government continued efforts to amend the 2012 Provisional Constitution without broad-based consensus.

Among the key disagreements were the ongoing constitutional amendments and changes to the electoral framework, both of which remain unresolved. The departure of the Jubbaland president Ahmed Islam Ahmed Madobe, a key opposition figure, from Mogadishu was widely interpreted as a clear indication of the breakdown in negotiations.

Shortly after the opposition’s announcement, the National Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (NIEBC) declared that preparations had been completed to begin local council elections across several federal member states.

“The Commission officially informs you that all work-related trips concerning the preparation and monitoring of the local council elections in South West, Hirshabelle, Galmudug, and the Northeastern federal member state have been completed,” their statement read. The NIEBC further stated that “political parties are requested to officially begin their election campaigns in full compliance with the laws, regulations, and election guidelines of the country.”

However, the Ministry of Interior, Federalism, and Democratization of Puntland condemned the election schedule released by the commission. The ministry objected to the inclusion of Galguduud District in Mudug Region, noting that Puntland had already conducted local council elections there on May 25, 2023. It also protested the inclusion of districts in the Sool and Cayn regions, which Puntland considers constitutionally part of its territory.

“Elections for local councils, the House of Representatives, and the presidency are constitutional powers of the member states of the Federal Government, as outlined in Article 120 of Somalia’s Provisional Constitution,” the ministry said in a statement.

The ministry further argued that the commission lacks both legal and political legitimacy, adding that Puntland would neither recognize its authority nor allow it to operate within its constitutional boundaries. Puntland officials also accused President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of “using the commission to create social division, violate the law, and undermine the federal system.”

In contrast, a parallel statement issued by the Northeastern administration, recently recognized as a federal member state, welcomed the NIEBC’s announcement. “The Ministry of interior affirms that it fully supports the implementation of these elections, in accordance with Articles 104 and 105 of the Constitution of the North Eastern Somalia Government, which clearly define the system, authority, and procedures for local council elections,” the statement read.

The administration also warned that it would not tolerate interference by Puntland officials. “The North Eastern Government clearly states that it will not tolerate violations or interference by officials from Puntland. Likewise, any act that undermines the territorial unity, solidarity, and general interests of the North Eastern Government will not be tolerated.”

These conflicting positions are rooted in the complex political history surrounding the establishment of the Northeastern State, commonly referred to as SSC-Khaatumo. Tensions stem from longstanding territorial disputes between Puntland and SSC-Khaatumo, particularly over the Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn regions. Both administrations have historically laid claim to these territories.

The immediate trigger for the formation of the new administration was the outbreak of violent clashes in Las Anod in early 2023. Fighting between Somaliland security forces and local clan militias resulted in Somaliland forces withdrew from the town. Local clan leaders subsequently convened conferences and declared a new regional administration, positioning it as an alternative authority to both Somaliland and Puntland.

Puntland rejected the legitimacy of the newly declared administration, viewing its formation as politically motivated and as undermining Puntland’s constitutional claims over the disputed regions.

Following local consultations and political mobilization, the administration in Las Anod sought formal recognition within Somalia’s federal framework. With backing from the Federal Government of Somalia, it was later recognized as a federal member state, a decision that further strained relations with Puntland, which maintains that the recognition process lacked constitutional consensus and encroached upon its territorial jurisdiction.

The dispute highlights deeper structural challenges within Somalia’s federal system. Competing interpretations of federalism, overlapping territorial claims, and clan-based political alignments continue to shape relations between Puntland, and the newly recognized Northeastern state.

Although the international community, including the United Nations Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS), has been attempting to mediate between the opposition and the federal government, the recent announcement by the electoral commission cannot be viewed in isolation from the broader political tensions that have derailed negotiations.

The commission stated that local elections will begin in four regional administrations, some of which are already politically contested. The mandates of certain regional presidents have expired, and the opposition bloc has repeatedly argued that elections should be held in accordance with the provisional constitutional framework. In this context, the commission’s announcement risks contradicting ongoing negotiations and may further deepen the rift between the parties.

Territorial disputes add another layer of complexity. SSS-Khaatumo regions remain contested, and Puntland does not recognize certain territories claimed by the newly formed administration. Proceeding with elections in these disputed areas is therefore likely to intensify tensions between Puntland and the Federal Government of Somalia.

Despite continued mediation efforts by international partners, these developments indicate Somalia may be heading toward a deepening political and constitutional crisis, particularly as the mandate of the federal government is set to expire in less than three months.