Mogadishu faces growing unrest over electoral dispute

Somalia’s opposition bloc, based in Mogadishu, has been planning mass protests across the capital over the past several days. The demonstrations are being organized in response to the current administration led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and what critics describe as mass evictions taking place across Mogadishu. While the federal government insists the evictions are part of efforts to reclaim public land, the operation has resulted in widespread displacement, with hundreds of families forced from their homes. Many houses belonging to displaced residents have been demolished.

The land dispute comes at a critical time, as President Mohamud’s four-year term is due to end this week. The president and his administration are pushing for a one-year term extension following controversial constitutional amendments introduced by the government. Those amendments stipulate a five-year presidential term, in contrast to the four-year term outlined under Somalia’s provisional constitution. Somalia’s prime minister Hamse Abdi Barre has recently made clear the government’s intention to remain in power beyond its mandated four-year term.

These developments have prompted opposition groups to mobilize supporters for large-scale demonstrations. However, the protests have faced disruptions from the federal government from the outset. According to local reports, heavily armed troops were deployed around the homes of prominent opposition leaders, including former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, as well as other opposition figures who were expected to rally supporters. The deployment led to tense standoffs between government forces and armed guards protecting opposition leaders, raising fears of possible violence in the capital.

The standoff has since prompted mediation efforts led by clan elders and traditional leaders seeking to prevent clashes. Initially, the opposition had planned to organize scattered protests across different parts of Mogadishu. However, following mediation efforts, former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed announced that demonstrators would instead gather in a single location. Speaking to the media earlier today, Sharif said, “After carefully considering various factors, we decided to hold the demonstration in a single location, Koonis.”

The core of the current political tension in Somalia lies in President Mohamud’s unilateral approach to the electoral process, a move that has been rejected by the opposition bloc as well as two key Federal Member States, Jubbaland and Puntland. The dispute has further intensified following developments in South West State, where the political process ultimately contributed to the removal of the regional president,

In an attempt to ease tensions, President Mohamud invited opposition leaders for dialogue last week, with talks initially expected to take place today. The invitation was cautiously welcomed by political stakeholders and the international community. However, the opposition made clear that any meaningful negotiations would require the federal government to suspend what it described as the president’s “unilateral electoral process” as a precondition for successful talks. According to opposition figures, genuine dialogue cannot occur while the government continues to implement contested electoral measures without broad-based consensus.

Despite these demands, President Mohamud’s administration has proceeded with the election, including holding elections in South West State. The opposition has interpreted these actions as evidence that the government is unwilling to compromise or pursue an inclusive political settlement. As a result, confidence in the planned talks has weakened even before formal negotiations could begin.

The international community — including the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia, the European Union, and the United Kingdom — initially welcomed the prospect of dialogue, viewing it as an opportunity to reduce political tensions. Nevertheless, despite early optimism, the talks now appear increasingly likely to follow the fate of previous failed negotiations that collapsed due to the absence of political compromise and mutual trust among Somali stakeholders.

The ongoing political crisis, combined with a constitutional vacuum and growing uncertainty surrounding the electoral process, has pushed the country into what many observers describe as its most serious political deadlock since 2016. Somalia now faces an unprecedented crisis — competing parallel constitutions, a near-total breakdown in relations between the federal government and several Federal Member States, and the gradual erosion of the stakeholder-based consensus model that has underpinned Somalia’s political system for nearly two decades.

The federal government is determined to pursue it is controversial electoral reforms and constitutional changes despite objections from opposition and regional administrations. Meanwhile, Puntland, Jubbaland, and opposition groups have shown no indication that they are willing to accept or participate in the federal government’s proposed electoral framework.

Given the depth of the current impasse, the risk of a new legitimacy crisis and an expanding security vacuum cannot be ruled out. If no political settlement is reached, Somalia could face intensified institutional paralysis, growing political fragmentation, and worsened instability at a time when the country continues to confront serious security, Al-Shabaab threat, humanitarian crisis, and governance challenges.