Kenya falters at the AU

“Africa must unite or perish.” – Kwame Nkrumah

This declaration by Ghana’s first president, Kwame Nkrumah, powerfully captures the essence of Pan-Africanism, a movement dedicated to fostering solidarity among African nations. In light of the recent electoral divisions within the African Union, where tensions have surfaced between Francophone and Anglophone countries as they sought to choose a new chairman, this call for unity is more important than ever. These rifts threaten to undermine the continent’s potential for progress and collaboration, making it crucial for African nations to prioritise unity over division in their intra-African diplomacy. 

Although expectations were high for Raila Odinga’s candidacy, he experienced an unexpected elimination after six rounds of voting. In a surprising turn of events, Djibouti’s foreign minister, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, known as a “master of military diplomacy,” successfully secured a two-thirds majority, garnering 33 votes in the decisive seventh round. “Allahu Akbar Allahu Akbar Allahu Akbar,” Ilyas Moussa Dawaleh, Djibouti’s finance minister posted on X, unable to contain his excitement. Ismail Omar Guelleh, Djibouti’s president, pointed out that Youssouf was “the first representative of an Arab and Islamic African country to hold this position”.

For Odinga, this was another major setback, adding to his list of electoral defeats, now on the Pan-African stage and not just the national level. He has been bested on five occasions for the Kenyan presidency and has now also failed to become the chairperson of the African Union. “I regret that Africa missed the opportunity to be served by the finest”, said William Ruto, who most recently beat Odinga for the presidency in 2022. The Standard, one of Kenya’s most popular newspapers, says it’s probably for the best, as “Kenya needs Raila more than Africa does”. 

But it also raises critical questions regarding Kenya’s diplomatic strategy and regional influence. Following Amina Mohamed’s defeat in 2017, this marks a second consecutive disappointment for Nairobi in its efforts to secure a leadership role within the African Union Commission. On other platforms Kenya has a similarly dismal record of failing to get its officials elected from the Commonwealth to the World Trade Organisation. Given that President William Ruto advocates for the African Union’s institutional reforms, this recent loss poses significant challenges to Kenya’s capacity to influence AU reform initiatives and promote the Pan-African spirit which Ruto has attempted to champion at various points in his presidency. 

The disappointment hasn’t been taken well in some quarters in Kenya. Opposition-aligned MPs have called for the withdrawal of Kenya’s membership from the African Union. Senator Ledama Olekina from Narok County has even proposed dividing the African Union in two following Odinga’s loss. “Why not?”, Olekina facetiously posted on X. One user didn’t take the proposal well trading fuck yous with the senator. Whilst another pointed out the similarity between the senators’ thinking and the growing hostility to multilateralism in the US. “When things don’t go their way in multilateral organizations, they try to sabotage or kill them,” Nyanje wa Nyanje, a lawyer and lecturer at Kabarak University said. Kiprotich Arap Cherargei, another Kenyan senator, has called for the creation of a prime minister’s post because Kenya “cannot allow such brilliant leadership and experience to go waste the way Africa union did it.”

Whatever impact Odinga’s return has on Kenyan domestic politics, however, the big question is what effect this will have on the country’s diplomacy, which, in the view of many, is failing to serve Nairobi’s interests and negatively impacted Odinga’s election bid. Will this be Kenya’s Damascus moment?

Raila’s Alpha Oumar Konaré jinx 

As pundits and locals ponder what Raila’s next move will be after the AUC loss, others are asking: Did Raila’s projected strength and profile cost him his AUC election bid? Raila Odinga’s supporters highlighted his Pan-African stance, extensive governmental experience, global connections, and charismatic presence in contrast to Youssouf. Kenya’s diplomatic efforts were seen by some leaders as bold and self-assured, yet there was a sense that this confidence could risk alienating potential allies.

Charles Onyango-Obbo, a former editor of the Mail & Guardian, compared Odinga to Alpha Oumar Konaré, an academic and former president of Mali. Konaré was elected chairman of the AU commission in 2003 with strong backing from the organisation’s member states. Odinga, like Konaré, had a strong profile, was well-networked and widely known to his peers. “He is also more charismatic than the somewhat bureaucratic Youssouf,” Onyango-Obbo posted on X. Whilst these qualities were viewed as strengths for supporters of Odinga’s candidacy, Onyango-Obbo said these were actually possible reasons that he failed. 

Onyango-Obbo cites an anonymous source who was in Addis Ababa for the election, who told him that there were concerns about Odinga’s age (“Joe Biden problem”) and other questions regarding Kenya’s conservative, pro-Western foreign policy as Africa more broadly adopts a more confrontational posture with the West, however, it was Odinga’s independence that also raised concerns. “Raila’s profile, which he rode on, was a problem. Youssouf's perceived ‘weakness’ became an advantage. Even the perception that Djibouti's President Ismail Omar Guelleh was not enthusiastic about his candidacy worked in his favour,” Onyango-Obbo’s source said. 

Konaré on the other hand, cut a different figure with African heads of state: “When he became AU chair, he had connections on par with, or even surpassing, some African presidents. He was too independent, and problematic for them”. The source added: “At that point, the decision seems to have been made that there wouldn't be another Konaré”. 

Onyango-Obbo doubted that this was the only reason but said it was an intriguing assessment. 

Raila’s “Joe Biden” problem 

Raila’s “Joe Biden” problem draws a parallel between his political challenges and those faced by President Joe Biden, who was seeking another four year term in one of the world’s most stressful jobs even as his cognitive abilities were clearly deteriorating. Odinga, like Biden, has passed his 80th year meanwhile his competitor, Youssouf, is 59. Odinga at least partially acknowledged that this was a problem when he returned to Kenya after his defeat. 

Many critics express scepticism about the ability of leaders in their twilight years to handle the rigorous demands of full-time roles, often characterised by long hours, intense responsibilities, and the need for quick decision-making. This concern arises as the African Union faces enormous challenges today. If William Ruto was saying Odinga was too old in 2022, when both men competed for the Kenyan presidency, how fit will Odinga be three years on?

In 2025, the African Union confronts a myriad of complex issues: funding challenges, the ongoing crisis in Sudan, the war in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo, the neglected conflict in the Cameroons, and the growing activities of jihadist organisations in the Sahel region are major challenges. 

This difficulty is compounded by the resurgence of military coups in countries such as Chad, Mali, and Burkina Faso, which have withdrawn from Ecowas and been suspended from the African Union. Recently, the African Union has struggled with its legitimacy and relevance in the eyes of African citizens. There has been criticism surrounding the effectiveness of its leadership in addressing significant crises, particularly in areas such as conflict, funding, integration, governance, and global shifts following the election of President Donald Trump. These challenges require both determination and resilience to overcome. 

Price of sloppy Eurocentric diplomacy

In an article in The Standard historian Macharia Munene outlined three possible reasons why the author believed Odinga lost. Among the reasons cited by Munene was Ruto’s hubristic view that he is a leader for the continent and likes to be “well thought of in Western circles”. As a result, Ruto “makes questionable statements that contradict African Union positions on Western Sahara and on Palestine, thereby making other leaders to wonder about him.” Ruto has been rewarded for his loyalty to his Western allies, getting major non-Nato ally status with the US during the Biden administration and being the only African leader extended a White House visit during that term. However, that hasn’t won him any friends on the continent. And the US is now less interested in Africa under Trump than it was during Biden’s term. 

In light of this tendency, Munene says, African leaders are right to wonder whether a candidate that he supports will advance “continental interests” or whether he’ll be a “proxy for extra-continental forces in Africa.” Munene believes most African leaders concluded the latter, and so the strength of Odinga’s candidacy “was self-deception PR”. 

Peter Kagwanja, a Kenyan intellectual and author, similarly said that Ruto’s foreign policy had weakened Odinga’s bid. “Kenya’s virulently pro-West policy and status as a non-North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) ally of immediate former US President Joe Biden’s ultra-liberal Washington also alienated the country’s strong pan-African allies like South Africa,” Kagwanja told The Nation. Pretoria viewed Ruto more as a “puppet of the West than a bonafide pan-African leader,” Kagwanja continued. He says this entire episode should serve as a “wake-up call” for Kenya to return to its “Africa-centred foreign policy based on national interests”. 

Kenya has also made other missteps which have alienated potential friends. When the DRC crisis began and M23 captured Goma, Ruto spoke to French president Emmanuel Macron, which wasn’t received well across Francophone African countries. Nairobi is also perceived as supporting Rwanda which is accused of backing M23's seizure of Congolese cities. Kenya was also seen as weak on Israel, despite the AU maintaining a strong pan-African stance of solidarity with Palestine throughout the Gaza conflict. South Africa, a diplomatic heavyweight, was backing Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato, according to Africa Report, but then switched to Youssouf when Randriamandrato was eliminated. 

“In large part, Mr Odinga lost because he was fronted by a bad salesman in President Ruto whose recent adventures in the DRC and Sudan has scandalised most leaders in the East and Horn of Africa region,” David Ochami, a lawyer.