The illusion of choice in Ethiopia’s coming election

Ethiopians will head to the polls in a few weeks. But there is little sign the vote will deliver the democracy that has long eluded the Horn of Africa’s second-most populous nation.

Many opposition figures and journalists critical of the ruling Prosperity party, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, have been jailed. Among them are the parliamentarians Christian Tadele and Yohannes Buayalew, a former ally of the prime minister and an influential Amhara politician, as well as Taye Dendea, a former senior minister. Journalists, including Gobeze Sisay and Dawit Begashaw, have also been detained. Just last month, Million Beyene — a journalist and managing editor at the Addis Standard — was kidnapped in Addis Ababa, by unidentified individuals dressed in plain clothes.

With key critics behind bars, the outcome of the election appears all but predetermined, even as Ethiopia struggles with civil conflict, slowing economic growth and a worsening humanitarian crisis.

“In many towns and villages, the only party allowed to campaign is the governing party,” said Yonas Akalewold, a private high school teacher. “Everyone already knows the result. So why hold an election?”

“The only visible campaigning is by the government,” he added. “They control the ballot, use state resources, and anything that challenges their rule is shut down.”

Ethiopia has a long history of elections, dating back to the imperial era of the 1960s. But the idea of genuinely free and fair competition only emerged after the fall of the Marxist-Leninist military regime known as the Derg in 1991.

In the decades since, the country has held regular votes under a federal system introduced in the early 1990s. Elections have taken place in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2021, with another scheduled this year. Yet the process has consistently been dominated by the ruling establishment, first under the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front and now the Prosperity party.

Despite repeated electoral cycles, opposition groups have struggled to compete on equal terms, often facing restrictions, arrests and an electoral system widely seen as favouring those in power.

“I don’t think this election will be fair at all,” said Mistresilasie Tamerat, a 23-year-old opposition activist. “There is a greater chance I will end up in prison than be allowed to present ideas that challenge the government.”

The 2005 general election remains one of the most pivotal and contested moments in Ethiopia’s modern political history.

For the first time, the vote featured a genuinely competitive landscape, a relatively open media environment and an opposition capable of mobilising nationwide support. The Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD) emerged as a serious challenger, winning significant backing, particularly in the capital, Addis Ababa.

But the optimism was short-lived. Opposition parties alleged widespread fraud during the vote-counting process, a claim echoed by international observers who pointed to serious irregularities. Protests erupted across the country. Security forces responded with force, and according to human rights groups including Human Rights Watch, nearly 200 people were killed, with thousands detained and many opposition leaders later jailed or forced into exile.

Subsequent elections in 2010 and 2015 were far less competitive. The ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front tightened its grip on power, winning overwhelming majorities amid a political environment widely criticised for restricting opposition activity and independent media.

The 2021 election, the first under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, was held under even more strained conditions. Although more than 40 political parties were registered, the vote was overshadowed by the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Tigray. The war has been catastrophic for the region. Some studies estimate that over half a million people have been killed, while millions more have been displaced. Reports have also emerged of mass atrocities taking place, allegedly orchestrated by Eritrean forces fighting alongside the Ethiopian Defense Forces. Additionally, Amhara militias have been accused of carrying out widespread abuses, often with little restraint and under the influence of the ruling party.

No voting took place in Tigray, while insecurity disrupted polling in parts of Oromia, Amhara, and Benishangul-Gumuz. According to the National Election Board of Ethiopia, voting was postponed or canceled in dozens of constituencies.

Where voting did occur, the Prosperity party secured an overwhelming victory, winning more than 90% of parliamentary seats. A small number of opposition parties, including the National Movement of Amhara and Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice, gained limited representation, but their influence in parliament has remained marginal.

According to the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), more than 50 political parties are expected to participate in Ethiopia’s seventh general election, scheduled for June 2026. Voter registration, which closed in April, reached roughly 47 million people, with authorities introducing online registration for the first time.

Yet few among the political class, or the wider public, appear convinced the vote will be free or fair.

Opposition parties cite a familiar list of concerns: insecurity in key regions, restrictions on campaigning, delayed access to state funding, and what they describe as an uneven playing field dominated by the ruling Prosperity party. Many also acknowledge their own weaknesses, including fragmentation, limited national reach and a continued reliance on ethnic-based mobilisation.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has rejected those criticisms, insisting the election will be credible and competitive. His government has framed the process as part of a broader democratic transition, with Abiy arguing Ethiopia is moving away from a system that once treated opposition groups as adversaries and towards one that recognises them as legitimate political actors.

The election board says it has assessed constituencies using a colour-coded system — green, yellow and red — to determine where voting can safely take place, and maintains that conditions in much of the country remain “predictable”. But on the ground, security remains the defining challenge.

Large parts of Amhara, Oromia, Tigray, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella continue to experience instability. In some areas, voter registration has been delayed or halted altogether, with the NEBE acknowledging it has been unable to operate in thousands of polling stations due to ongoing conflict.

Nowhere is the uncertainty more acute than in Tigray.

The region, which borders Eritrea, was devastated by the 2022 war. Although the fighting formally ended with the Pretoria Agreement in November 2022, Tigray’s political status remains unresolved. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has lost its legal standing after the election board revoked its registration, citing failure to comply with electoral requirements. Federal authorities have also accused the group of maintaining hostile alliances, further complicating its potential participation in the vote.

In October last year, Tewodros Gedion, Ethiopia’s foreign minister, alleged that factions within the TPLF were attempting to form an alliance with Eritrea against the Ethiopian federal government. The TPLF denied these claims. At the same time, the group has continued to accuse Addis Ababa of failing to uphold key provisions of the Pretoria Peace Agreement.

In recent months, relations between the federal government in Addis Ababa and the TPLF, which wields considerable influence in the regional capital, Mekelle, and throughout the wider region, have deteriorated.

Tensions escalated further when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed decided to extend the mandate of the interim administration in Tigray, led by General Tadesse Worede. The TPLF outright rejected this extension, viewing it as “illegitimate and a violation of the peace agreement.” In response, the group moved to reinstate its pre-war governing council in an effort to challenge the federal government’s decision. Compounding these tensions are increasing reports of troop mobilization and military deployments, fueling fears that the region could slide back into armed conflict if the situation continues to escalate.

However, for many residents whose livelihoods have been severely disrupted by displacement and the effects of war, the prospect of elections feels distant and largely irrelevant.

“What is in our heads is not an election, but how to feed ourselves,” said Senait Markos, a local resident, describing the economic devastation and ongoing insecurity. Humanitarian agencies estimate that a large majority of Tigray’s population still requires assistance, amid declining aid flows.

Tensions are also high in Amhara, Ethiopia’s second-most populous region, where federal forces are engaged in an ongoing conflict with the Fano militia. Once allied with the government during the Tigray war, Fano now accuses Addis Ababa of marginalising Amhara interests following the peace deal. In recent months, the group has warned that anyone participating in what it calls a “sham election” could be treated as an enemy.

In Oromia, the presence of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), which has been designated a terrorist group by parliament, continues to pose challenges for electoral authorities. Disputes over contested administrative boundaries between regions have further complicated preparations.

Across the country, the cumulative effect is a process taking shape under significant strain.

“I don’t think I will vote in this election and I don’t think there is any viable opposition that I can support and even if there is one, the only one allowed to campaign is the government’s party and my vote doesn't matter”, Sirak Alemseged, a taxi driver in Bahir Dar complained.

Consequently, political parties continue to voice frustration over the security situation, lack of resources, and pressure from the incumbent, with some warning that they may boycott the process entirely unless conditions improve. The compounding voter dissatisfaction, the growing hostile environment, the dominance of the ruling party, which has shrunk the space for an open race, the skepticism of the opposition, and the ravaging conflict across the country are making Ethiopia’s upcoming polls less convincing as being free and fair.

• Editorial Note: This article has been published anonymously to protect the identity of the author, who is working in an environment that may jeopardize their safety or the safety of those around them.