Guelleh fortifies his decades-long rule with a 97.8% election win

Ismaïl Omar Guelleh has secured another presidential term in Djibouti after winning 97.8% of the vote, according to state media. This victory grants him a sixth term and extends his nearly three-decade leadership of the strategically positioned country. Following the announcement, he publicly acknowledged the outcome on social media by sharing a message declaring his “re-election.”

The election outcome was largely anticipated, given the limited competition and the prevailing political environment. Guelleh’s only challenger, Mohamed Samatar, represents a minor party without parliamentary presence. Meanwhile, major opposition groups have abstained from participating in elections for years, citing concerns over fairness and transparency. Recent constitutional changes, including the removal of the presidential age cap, have further reinforced Guelleh’s ability to remain in power. Official figures also indicated a voter turnout of just over 80%, consistent with previous elections in which he achieved similarly large margins of victory.

The chairperson of the African Union Commission, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, who has also previously served as a long-time foreign minister of Djibouti, congratulated Guelleh, praising the country’s electoral process. “I warmly congratulate H.E. Ismail Omar Guelleh on his re-election as President of the Republic of Djibouti,” Youssouf said in a statement. He added that he “commends the people of Djibouti for their peaceful participation in the electoral process, underscoring their continued commitment to democratic governance, national cohesion, and stability.”

The Executive Secretary of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Workneh Gebeyehu, also congratulated Guelleh, praising the election process. “I warmly congratulate H.E. Ismaïl Omar Guelleh on his re-election as President of the Republic of Djibouti, following the presidential elections,” Gebeyehu said in his statement. He added that he “commends the people of Djibouti for the peaceful conduct of the elections and their participation in the electoral process, reflecting their continued commitment to peace, stability, and national development.” He also praised former Ethiopian President Mulatu Teshome and the IGAD Election Observation Mission “for their professionalism and dedication.”

Guelleh came to power in 1999 following a political transition in Djibouti. He succeeded his uncle, Hassan Gouled Aptidon, who had ruled since independence in 1977. Guelleh had long been a key figure behind the scenes, serving as chief of staff and head of security, roles that enabled him to consolidate influence across the military and political elite. When Aptidon stepped down due to age and health concerns, Guelleh was selected as the candidate of the ruling People's Rally for Progress (RPP).

The 1999 election that consolidated Guelleh’s presidency was technically multiparty, but it was dominated by the entrenched state apparatus. He faced a single main challenger yet won with a commanding majority, benefiting from state resources, established patronage networks, and the legacy of the ruling party. This pattern would become characteristic of Djibouti’s electoral politics. Elections were held regularly, but the playing field remained heavily tilted.

Subsequent elections in 2005, 2011, 2016, and 2021 reinforced Guelleh’s dominance. In 2005, he ran almost unchallenged after opposition parties boycotted the vote, citing unfair conditions. In 2011, constitutional changes, particularly the removal of presidential term limits, allowed him to seek a third term, which he won decisively amid criticism of the lack of a level playing field. The 2016 and 2021 elections followed a similar pattern: Guelleh secured overwhelming victories, often with over 85% of the vote, while opposition figures alleged irregularities, restricted campaigning, and limited media access.

A key factor in Guelleh’s longevity has been his ability to maintain strong control over state institutions, including the security services and judiciary. Djibouti’s strategic location at the entrance to the Red Sea has also played a significant role. The country hosts military bases from global powers such as the United States, France, and China, providing the government with substantial revenue and international backing. This geopolitical importance has often muted external pressure for democratic reforms, allowing Guelleh to maintain internal political control with relatively limited consequences.

However, internal cracks have recently begun to emerge. Since the constitutional changes introduced by Guelleh, internal pressure has been mounting. The ruling party has sought to mitigate these tensions by portraying Guelleh as an indispensable leader during a period of significant regional challenges, including crises emanating from the Middle East.

The latest declared victory was widely expected and followed a predictable outcome. The election was marked by a lack of competitiveness and the absence of a credible opposition bloc. In a recent interview, Guelleh dismissed concerns about political competition, asking, “Should I create competitors for myself?” He further claimed that the vast majority of Djiboutians support his continued leadership, stating that “the immense majority of the population believes that it still needs me.”