Growing rift between Mogadishu and South West state heightens risk of conflict

Since the President of South West State, Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed (Laftagareen), announced that his administration had formally cut ties with the Federal Government of Somalia, along with his resignation from the Justice and Solidarity Party led by Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the political crisis between Baidoa and Mogadishu has entered a new and more dangerous phase.

The relationship between South West State and the federal government had been deteriorating quietly for months. At the center of the dispute were disagreements over constitutional reforms and the structure of upcoming elections. President Laftagareen had initially avoided publicly endorsing the constitutional changes made by President Mohamud. However, as the federal government pushed the changes, pressure mounted within the region, forcing the regional administration to take a clearer stance.

Closely tied to the constitutional issue is the disagreement over Somalia’s electoral system. The federal government has spent the past two years advocating for a “one person, one vote” model, an ambitious shift from the clan-based indirect elections. The administration has pushed this as a “historic step toward democracy.” However, opposition groups argue that the plan is premature. They point to ongoing insecurity, the presence of armed groups in large parts of the country, and weak institutional capacity as major obstacles. More critically, opponents claim the process was politically driven. They argue that the electoral reforms were designed in a way that could benefit the incumbent president, potentially enabling President Mohamud to secure a consecutive term. The absence of consensus has made the electoral roadmap one of the most divisive political issues in the country today.

Following Laftagareen’s announcement, several ministers and deputy ministers from South West State resigned from their positions in the federal government. This wave of resignations reflects a broader political realignment. Many of these officials cited “federal interference in regional affairs,” accusing Mogadishu of bypassing local authorities and undermining state institutions. At the parliamentary level, federal MPs and senators from the region also backed the decision to sever ties.

The federal government has rejected the move by South West State. In response, it has taken both political and security measures. Senior federal ministers have traveled to major cities within South West State, aiming to strengthen alliances with local leaders and maintain federal influence. These visits are part of a broader strategy to prevent the regional administration from consolidating full control.

At the same time, reports of troop deployments, particularly heavily armored units, have raised alarm. While the federal government has not officially framed these movements as coercive, regional officials and opposition figures interpret them as an “attempt to pressure and intimidate the leadership in Baidoa.” A key development has been the appointment of Sadiiq Aadan Cali as the new head of the Bay Region Police. Security institutions in Somalia are often deeply intertwined with political authority.

The Somali Future Council has publicly supported South West State’s stance. However, their strongest message has been a warning against the use of force. “The Council strongly warns the President of the Federal Republic of Somalia against the misuse of the national armed forces and security agencies in resolving political disputes. Such actions are not only unlawful, but they also directly undermine the strength and reputation of the armed forces, while giving terrorist groups an opportunity to exploit internal divisions,” their communiqué read.

The current situation closely mirrors last year’s confrontation between the federal government and Jubbaland. In late 2024, Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe held regional elections that were rejected by Mogadishu. The federal government escalated the dispute by issuing an arrest warrant, later withdrawn, but tensions had already intensified. The conflict evolved into armed clashes that lasted for months. Federal forces also attempted to establish a parallel administration in the Gedo region, effectively creating competing centers of authority.

The South West State crisis now risks becoming another chapter in this pattern of confrontation between Mogadishu and federal member states. With Puntland and Jubbaland already in opposition, South West’s alignment further isolates the federal government politically. At the same time, the deployment of troops and restructuring of security leadership raises the stakes on the ground.

The administration of President Mohamud remains firmly committed to the constitutional changes he signed into law and to the electoral model it has advanced over the past three years. The situation in South West State exemplifies this broader constitutional and political crisis. The stakes in the region remain volatile, with increasing fears of outright confrontation across the state. This volatile political climate is unfolding at a particularly difficult moment, as Somalia continues to grapple with persistent insecurity and instability. At the same time, the country faces an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, driven by widespread drought across the country.