Getachew Reda pushes Ethiopia’s Red Sea ambitions

Recently, in an interview with Global Power Shift, Getachew Reda — former Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) official, interim president of the Tigray region, and now senior advisor to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed — cautioned against framing Ethiopia’s Red Sea ambitions as territorial claims.

“The sea access issue is often confused with ownership of real estate,” Getachew said. “Whether we like it or not, we are 130 million people, and that in itself is combustible. At some point, people will feel they must have access to the sea, no matter what sort of arrangement is going to take. So, it would rather be wise for people to realize that one way or another something get to give and take. Any sensible Eritrean, including the government, should understand that” adding “We should try to avoid a descent into all-out war.”

His comments came just days after the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) released a strongly worded statement underscoring Ethiopia’s historic grievances and determination. The ENDF stated that Ethiopia’s lack of direct access to the sea had “diminished its great dignity as a nation” for more than three decades, implying that it had undermined the country’s geopolitical interests.

“For us, Ethiopia’s national interest is our compass,” the ENDF statement read. “To secure it, we will not hesitate for a second to make any sacrifice. We take joy in seeing our nation raise, before the world, the rightful question of Ethiopia’s access to the Red Sea. Just as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has become a reality, so too should the Red Sea issue. Any attempt to portray this question as illegitimate is nothing short of treachery.”

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has also framed the matter as existential. In a televised address on September 1, Abiy pledged to “correct the historic error” of Ethiopia’s loss of sea access three decades ago. “The mistake made 30 years ago will be corrected tomorrow,” he said. “Remaining a prisoner of the land is no longer sustainable. This is not a matter of pride, it has become an existential issue.”

Observers warn that the Horn of Africa is entering a dangerous phase. Since the beginning of the year, regional analysts have cautioned that Ethiopia’s push for sea access could ignite a new conflict with Eritrea. Landlocked since Eritrea’s independence in 1993, Ethiopia’s renewed demands are widely seen by neighbors as aggressive, feeding fears of war. Eritrea, with its own history of bitter conflict against Ethiopia, has responded with warnings and hostile rhetoric.

At the same time, last year Ethiopia’s relations with Somalia have soured over a controversial Memorandum of Understanding signed with Somaliland. The deal, which promised Ethiopia potential access to Somaliland’s coast in exchange for political concessions, was rejected outright by Mogadishu as a violation of Somalia’s sovereignty. The agreement reinforced perceptions of Ethiopia’s “expansionist” ambitions. After a year of diplomatic deadlock, Turkey mediated between the two countries, resulting in the Ankara Declaration.

Across the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia’s drive for sea access is increasingly viewed as a hostile move. Neighboring countries, including Somalia, whose president once described it as an attempted annexation, view it with distrust. Addis Ababa maintains that its pursuit is purely for survival and development, insisting on commercial access, however, its neighbors remain unconvinced. The tension between Ethiopia’s claims of “rightful access” and its neighbors’ fears of territorial encroachment has left the region on edge. Militarization and the risk of confrontation continue to grow. Although some analysts believe that war is not imminent, the possibility of conflict stemming from Ethiopia’s sea access ambitions cannot be ruled out.