Fighting in Baidoa pushes Somalia’s political breakdown further

Heavy clashes erupted today in Baidoa, the capital city of Somalia’s Southwest State, coinciding with the planned swearing-in of newly elected members of the regional parliament.

Local reports indicate that casualties have been recorded, although the exact number of those killed or wounded remains unknown.

Briefing the media, the Police Commander of Bay Region, Sadiq Doodishe, said that “a few armed men attempted to stir up unrest in the city to make it appear unsafe.” He accused unnamed politicians of orchestrating the attack, adding that “the city is now 100 percent secure.”

The attack was carried out by forces loyal to the ousted president of Southwest State, Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed, widely known as Laftagareen. Laftagareen was removed from office through military intervention by the federal government after he rejected constitutional changes introduced by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and proceeded with local elections in defiance of the federal government’s planned electoral process.

Laftagareen maintains that he remains the legitimate president of Southwest State. Since his removal, forces loyal to him have reportedly been stationed outside Baidoa and have been seeking to recapture the city.

Following his ouster, the federal government has conducted local parliamentary elections in Southwest State and is now preparing to hold a presidential election. The latest clashes highlight the deepening political crisis in the region and raise concerns over security as the federal-backed electoral process moves forward.

In a statement, Somalia’s national army said it had foiled an early-morning attack by “al-Shabaab-linked militants.” The army described the clashes as a “cowardly attack” and claimed that it had inflicted heavy losses on the attackers, including personnel and equipment.

The army said militants had been dispersed inside and around Baidoa, and that security forces were continuing operations to “verify the number of casualties among the attackers.” The military said it would release further details once casualty figures and other information from the operation had been confirmed.

The recent clashes are part of a growing political rift between Somalia’s Federal Member States and the Federal Government. At the centre of the dispute is the question of constitutional legitimacy and the federal government’s mandate. Opposition argue that the government’s mandate under the Provisional Constitution expired May 15, while the Federal Government insists that a one-year term extension is valid under the newly amended constitution, which the president has signed into law.

The new constitutional framework introduces a five-year presidential term. These amendments have placed Somalia in a prolonged political impasse, which has lasted for more than two years. Two major Federal Member States have rejected the new constitutional changes outright, creating what many observers describe as a situation in which the country is effectively operating under two parallel constitutional interpretations.

The Federal Government continues to push for a one-person, one-vote electoral model. However, the opposition bloc, operating under the Coalition of the Somali Future Council and comprising Mogadishu-based opposition leaders alongside two Federal Member States, has rejected the government’s proposed election model. The opposition accuses the Federal Government of taking unilateral actions that violate the spirit and provisions of the Provisional Constitution.

Several rounds of talks have been held in an attempt to break the deadlock, but all have failed. The latest round of negotiations, brokered by the international community, lasted three days before eventually collapsing. The Federal Government continues to insist on an electoral model that the opposition and some Federal Member States reject on the grounds that it lacks consensus and is designed to favour the incumbent president.

Recently, the opposition bloc declared that it no longer recognizes the president’s legitimacy, referring to him as the “former president.”

In addition to the wider political impasse, the security situation in Southwest State remains fragile. Meanwhile, tensions are also intensifying in Galmudug State, one of the few Federal Member States that has remained largely under federal influence. There are growing fears of armed confrontation in the state capital following emerging divisions between the regional president and the Federal Government.

Reports of troop movements and deployments have added to concerns that the political dispute could turn violent. Puntland’s vice president today accused the Federal Government of diverting troops from frontline operations to Galmudug in an attempt to pressure the regional president.

The situation in Baidoa and the emerging crisis in Galmudug reflect the multitude of crises that have plagued Somalia over the last two years -- constitutional vacuum, uncertainty surrounding the electoral road, political, and security crises. The breakdown in dialogue, the rejection of the new constitution by key Federal Member States, and the growing militarisation of political disputes all point to a dangerous period of uncertainty for Somalia, at a time when the country is already facing a constitutional crisis.