Ethiopia accuses Eritrea, TPLF of plotting new conflict

Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister, Gedion Timothewos, has alleged that Eritrea and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have joined forces militarily with the intent of launching an armed conflict against Ethiopia.

In a formal letter submitted to the UN Secretary-General António Guterres, Gedion alleged that “collusion between the Eritrean government and the hardliner faction of the TPLF has become more evident,” claiming that the alliance, codenamed “Tsimdo”—is “actively preparing to wage war against Ethiopia.”

The minister further accused both Eritrea and elements within the TPLF of “funding, mobilizing, and directing armed groups such as Fano {An armed group aligned with Amhara ethno-nationalist ideology} to expand the horizon of the conflict,” asserting that these groups participated in a recent offensive to capture the strategic town of Woldiya, a town and district that serves as the administrative center of the North Wollo Zone in Ethiopia’s Amhara Region.

The letter identifies Eritrea as “the main architect of these nefarious activities,” accusing Asmara of seeking to “destabilize and fragment Ethiopia” through financial, material, and political support. Gedion dismissed Eritrea’s claims of acting in self-defense as “pretexts invoked to justify its decades-old effort to destabilize Ethiopia.”

Former Tigray interim president Getachew Reda, who served from March 2023 until his ouster in April 2025, recently echoed similar concerns in an interview with Global Power Shifts. “Eritreans are very clever,” Reda said. “They know they don’t have the numerical advantage over the federal government, so they want to use whatever opportunities present themselves, including within Tigray.”

Reda criticized some within the TPLF leadership for what he described as an attempt to recast “Eritrea as a brotherly ally,” warning that “the Eritrean leadership under President Isaias was at the forefront of committing the crimes the people of Tigray suffered.” He accused certain TPLF leaders of “seeking alignment with Eritrea as a shield against a perceived threat from the federal government.”

On September 29, the TPLF issued a statement warning of a “silent genocide” unfolding in Tigray and accused the federal government of failing to implement the Pretoria Agreement, the peace accord signed in South Africa in November 2022 that ended two years of devastating conflict between Tigrayan forces and the Ethiopian federal government.

The renewed exchange of accusations comes amid intensifying rhetoric between Addis Ababa and Asmara over Ethiopia’s pursuit of sea access.

In a recent address to a joint session of Ethiopia’s federal houses, President Taye Atske Selassie reaffirmed the country’s inalienable “interest in securing reliable and sustainable access to the sea,” stressing that this pursuit continues to gain understanding within the international community. He emphasized that Ethiopia seeks this objective “through peaceful, and diplomatic means.”

Responding to the president’s remarks, Eritrea’s Information Minister Yemane G. Meskel issued a statement on social media, dismissing Ethiopia’s sea-access agenda as “bizarre and mind-boggling.” He likened the ruling Prosperity Party’s position to “deceitful palliative to rationalize and justify their abominable agendas of coveting and usurping inalienable people's rights, and/or national wealth and endowment, of their victim countries,” warning that such rhetoric risks “igniting another unnecessary and avoidable bout of conflict in a region bedevilled by perennial upheavals and attendant suffering.”

When Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed assumed office in April 2018, one of his signature achievements was a historic rapprochement with Eritrea, ending two decades of hostility following the 1998–2000 border war. However, the outbreak of the Tigray war in November 2020 marked a reversal. Eritrean forces entered northern Ethiopia to fight alongside federal troops against the TPLF and were accused of committing widespread atrocities—including killings, systematic looting, and sexual violence.

The Pretoria Agreement of November 2022 sought to halt the conflict, requiring the cessation of hostility and the restoration of humanitarian access to Tigray. While fighting subsided, key provisions of the accord remain “unfulfilled.”

Eritrea’s discontent with the Pretoria Agreement and its growing rift with Abiy’s government have reignited old animosities, raising fears that the Horn of Africa could again slide toward large-scale war. With Ethiopia’s renewed diplomatic offensive, Eritrea’s fiery responses, and persistent mistrust among Tigray’s political elite, the fragile peace achieved in recent years appears increasingly at risk. The growing hostile rhetoric is ringing alarm bells of an imminent conflict.