Elections on hold: opposition vs. Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud

This week, the Somali Salvation Forum—a coalition of opposition figures that includes former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, former Prime Ministers Hassan Ali Khaire and Mohamed Hussein Roble, and other prominent political figures—concluded another round of meetings. For months, the forum has been holding a series of gatherings focused on a single issue: Somalia’s 2026 election roadmap.

The Forum has been pushing what it calls a “consensus election model”, an idea that initially directly challenged President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud’s position. Since returning to office in 2022, President Mahmoud has pushed a one-person, one-vote (1P1V). His administration has made a controversial constitutional and electoral laws amendments, established an independent election commission, and maintained that universal suffrage is the only “legitimate” path forward. Additionally, President Mahmoud’s administration has pushed voter registration, and over 40 political parties have been registered so far.

The opposition, however, hasn’t budged.

In August, the two sides engaged in what were described as “serious” negotiations. However, after multiple rounds of talks, they failed to reach an agreement, and the talks ultimately collapsed. Shortly thereafter, the opposition bloc fractured. Key figures, including former Prime minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke and two former speakers of Parliament, accepted concessions from the president. The resulting deal scaled back parts of President Mahmoud’s original plan: rather than holding direct presidential elections, parliament would elect the president, who would then appoint a prime minister subject to parliamentary approval.

The Forum's subsequent statements, including the most recent one, made one thing clear: a core opposition faction is not buying into president Mahmoud’s election framework.

“It is evident that the president and his government have failed to present a credible electoral system and a transparent mechanism for managing the transfer of power during the transition period,” the Forum declared. The forum went on to warn that president Mahmoud’s plan amounts to a “term-extension scheme disguised as elections.” Instead, they urged him to pursue a dialogue on a national consensus framework to avoid what they described as a looming “political vacuum and constitutional leadership crisis.”

Here’s the catch: while rejecting the Mahmoud’s plan, the opposition has yet to present a clear alternative.

“To date, no alternative electoral framework has been presented, a matter that continues to raise questions among the public,” Farhan Yusuf, a researcher and deputy executive director of Somali public agenda, told Geeska. “This seems to result from divisions within the opposition, which has yet to agree on an alternative model to the one proposed by the President and his administration.”

Adding to the deadlock are two powerful federal member states. Puntland’s president, Saed Abdullahi Deni, who has already signaled his intent to run for the top seat, and Jubbaland’s president, Ahmed Mohamed Islam, whose forces continue to clash with federal troops in Gedo, remain firmly opposed to President Mahmoud’s framework. For the past two years, Villa Somalia’s relationship with these two leaders has been defined more by silence, and occasional armed clashes, than by meaningful engagement.

So, what’s standing in the way of the incumbent’s proposed model? Yusuf points a series of unresolved issues that render the plan untenable. The calendar itself, he notes, is unforgiving, offering “a limited timeframe” that restricts preparation. More worrying is the “absence of broad-based agreement,” layered on top of these concerns are “critical gaps in logistics and security arrangements.”

For now, the opposition refuses to endorse Hassan Sheikh’s plan. The president hasn’t backed down. The Puntland and Jubbaland leaders remain defiant. And an alternative model? Still missing.

What could break the deadlock? Yusuf sees only one path forward: “A comprehensive consensus agreement.” Until then, Somalia’s electoral roadmap remains an open question.