Djibouti heads to predictable polls as Guelleh eyes sixth term

Djibouti is heading toward presidential elections scheduled for April 10 amid internal and external conditions that make the outcome largely predictable, with widespread expectations that President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh will remain in power for a sixth term. This election comes within the context of prolonged political dominance since 1999, supported by a series of constitutional amendments that have reshaped the rules of political competition. The most recent amendment, approved in late 2025, removed the age limit for candidates, allowing the president to remain in the race despite exceeding the previous threshold.

The electoral landscape is characterized by weak pluralism and an effective absence of genuine competition. Major opposition forces have not fielded candidates, while others have chosen either to support the president or maintain a limited presence in parliament. The executive branch controls key aspects of the electoral process, including the Independent National Electoral Commission, while restrictions on the media continue, limiting the ability of political actors to engage in a level playing field. This is reinforced by a previous electoral record in which the president won an overwhelming 97% of the vote in the 2021 elections, raising questions about the nature and the credibility of the electoral process.

Meanwhile, major opposition groups, such as the Movement for Democratic Renewal and the Republican Alliance for Democracy, have continued to boycott elections since 2016, protesting what they see as a lack of institutional neutrality, particularly in the management of the electoral process. These groups refer to a political agreement signed in 2014 and call for its implementation as a framework for institutional reform, while describing the electoral process as lacking the basic conditions for fairness and competition.

Despite this apparent stagnation, Djibouti’s political system faces growing internal pressures. The balance underpinning the ruling coalition, led by the Union for the Presidential Majority, depends on delicate equations involving political, tribal, and regional considerations, making it vulnerable to internal tensions. Signs of this have emerged through resignations within the ruling elite, including that of senior adviser Alexis Mohamed in 2025, who linked his departure to declining democratic practices, lack of transparency, and the overreach of executive power. These developments intersect with a pattern of arrests affecting political and security figures, widely viewed as connected to managing internal balances within the regime.

In addition, the issue of political succession is becoming increasingly prominent, given the president’s advanced age and recurring reports of health problems. This opens the door to speculation about arrangements for a transfer of power. In this context, the name Naguib Abdallah Kamil has emerged; he holds a senior administrative position within the executive apparatus and is seen as a potential successor, reflecting a tendency toward reproducing power within the system’s inner circle.

Despite its strategic location, the country faces structural challenges. Djibouti sits on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most important maritime corridors through which a significant portion of global trade and container traffic passes. This gives it major geopolitical importance and attracts international military and logistical presence. However, this strategic position has not translated evenly domestically: estimates indicate that about one-third of the population lives below the poverty line, while youth unemployment remains high, despite the country recording one of the highest per capita income levels in East Africa.

These challenges are further compounded by rising tensions in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, which affect shipping routes and supply chains, directly impacting Djibouti’s logistics-based economy. In this context, the elections take on a dimension that goes beyond the domestic sphere, as they are linked to the state’s ability to maintain stability in a turbulent regional environment where security considerations intersect with economic and social pressures.

In light of these factors, the upcoming presidential elections in Djibouti appear largely predetermined in formal terms. However, they are taking place in a domestic context marked by the erosion of traditional balances and mounting pressure on the structure of the political system. This makes the post-election phase open to multiple possibilities, ranging from continued relative stability to the emergence of underlying tensions that could reshape the political landscape in the medium term.