Deadlock in Mogadishu

Somalia’s opposition bloc, under the umbrella of the Somali Future Council, has announced that its talks with the Federal Government of Somalia have collapsed without an agreement. The bloc accused the federal government of pursuing unilateral constitutional changes and exerting political pressure during negotiations aimed at resolving electoral disputes.

In a lengthy statement released after several rounds of negotiations, the Council said the dialogue had formally ended “without results,” despite what it described as sustained efforts to reach compromise. “The Somali Future Council regrets to inform the Somali people that the negotiations they had been engaged in with the Federal Government have concluded without results.”

The opposition bloc said it entered discussions “in good faith” amid mounting national challenges, citing humanitarian and political risks facing the country. “The Council entered the dialogue in good faith and out of concern for rescuing the country from the difficult situation it faces, including severe droughts, division, economic pressures, and the potential impact that changes in the global system and geopolitical competition may have on state-building and national unity.”

According to its communiqué, the Council viewed the talks as necessary to prevent instability ahead of looming constitutional deadlines. “The Council also assumed significant responsibility in preventing political uncertainty and ensuring an agreed electoral process conducted peacefully and on time before the legal mandates of the constitutional institutions expire.”

The opposition said it entered negotiations without preconditions and was prepared to compromise in pursuit of consensus. However, it accused the government of continuing constitutional amendment efforts during the talks and alleged intimidation of political figures.

“The Council remained engaged in negotiations while the Government continued unilateral constitutional amendments, during which more than 50 members of Parliament were unlawfully prevented from participating and subjected to threats and security intimidation,” the council said.

The Council further alleged pressure campaigns targeting its members. “During the talks, both security and political pressure were placed on Council members, and defamatory stories were spread through the media. All of these actions undermined trust and the goodwill necessary for meaningful dialogue.”

Negotiations had been ongoing for weeks between Somalia’s federal government and a coalition of federal member state leaders and opposition figures. The process moved from technical committee discussions to direct engagement between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and representatives of the Somali Future Council.

Despite this, core disagreements remained unresolved, particularly over Somalia’s 2012 Provisional Constitution. The constitutional review process has been the defining feature of the political deadlock over the past two years. It has strained relations between Mogadishu and federal member states such as Puntland and Jubaland, and has effectively frozen broader political dialogue.

In its communiqué, the Council reiterated its position that the 2012 Provisional Constitution must remain the country’s legal foundation unless amended through broad consensus.

“The Future Council insisted that the 2012 Provisional Constitution remains the country’s legal foundation, and that any amendment requires an inclusive national agreement, genuine public consultation, and preservation of the balance of power between the two federal levels.” It said the government rejected suspending its amendment process. “In contrast, the Government insisted it would not halt its process for anyone.”

The constitutional review has been highly contentious. In recent parliamentary sessions, disputes over the process have led to confrontations, disrupted proceedings, and reports of injuries among lawmakers.

Another major point of contention concerns the mandates of certain federal member state presidents whose terms have expired. Opposition leaders argue that these leaders must undergo indirect elections to restore political legitimacy. Puntland’s President Said Abdullahi Deni has publicly called for timely elections, reinforcing that position. Questions surrounding the terms and legitimacy of three federal member state administrations remain unresolved, further complicating efforts to establish a unified electoral framework.

The collapse of the talks came as the United States issued a statement urging Somali leaders to reach a negotiated settlement.

“Dialogue and compromise are difficult but essential and we encourage Somalia’s leaders to continue to pursue them,” the embassy said in a statement.

The breakdown carries substantial political and constitutional implications. For nearly two years, Somalia’s leadership has failed to reach a comprehensive agreement on both the constitutional review process and the electoral model. This prolonged stalemate has heightened uncertainty, and, at times, triggered localized tensions, particularly in Jubaland.

The timing is especially critical. With only three months remaining in the mandate of the current administration, the absence of consensus raises the risk of a constitutional vacuum and a disputed transition of power. Without agreement on the electoral framework and constitutional amendments, Somalia could face a period of heightened instability.

More broadly, the failure of the talks deepens an already entrenched political crisis and the current impasse indicates negotiations have reached a decisive stalemate, with both sides firmly entrenched. Whether international partners will step in to facilitate renewed dialogue remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the negotiations have hit a wall. Unless political leaders demonstrate willingness to re-engage constructively, Somalia risks entering a more profound constitutional and political crisis in the months ahead.