Clashes erupt in Baidoa amid escalating Federal–State tensions

Following days of escalating tensions and heavy troop mobilization across South West State, clashes have broken out on the outskirts and in parts of Baidoa, according to local reports.

Amid the unfolding situation, Somalia’s Minister of Ports Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur, an ally of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and a native of the region, claimed that federal forces had gained the upper hand. In a statement posted on his official Facebook account, he said: “The National Army has taken control of the most important parts of the city of Baidoa. The boys who have surrendered are safe.” He urged remaining fighters to lay down their arms and called on families to persuade them to avoid further violence.

The clashes come after a warning issued the previous night by South West State President Abdi Aziz Mohamed Laftagareen, who condemned any military action against the region. “Any attack on Baidoa or South West State territory will be met with an appropriately severe military response,” he said. He also appealed directly to President Mohamud to avoid bloodshed and instead work toward a credible electoral process.

Tensions had already drawn concern from regional and international actors. The African Union issued a statement expressing concerns of potential clashes and calling for de-escalation and dialogue. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development made a similar appeal. Despite these calls, federal authorities continued to build up troops in parts of the state.

Today’s clashes follow a rapidly organized electoral process in Baidoa on Saturday. Within a single day, South West State swore in a new regional parliament, selected its leadership, and re-elected incumbent President Laftagareen through an indirect parliamentary vote. Following his re-election, Laftagareen pledged that his second term would focus on continued development and unity. His victory was acknowledged by several opposition leaders, including former presidents Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, as well as the Jubbaland administration.

However, the Federal Government of Somalia denounced the process as “unlawful” and inconsistent with constitutional provisions and prior national agreements. Officials argued that it undermined established electoral frameworks and did not reflect the will of the people, describing it as a “predetermined outcome.”

Saturday’s election also unfolded amid widening political rifts between the federal government and South West State. Baidoa recently suspended relations with Mogadishu and rejected constitutional amendments introduced by the federal administration, arguing that they lacked consensus. In response, the federal government increased troop deployments in parts of South West State in an apparent effort to pressure the regional administration.

This is not the first time that clashes linked to disagreements over constitutional changes and Somalia’s electoral process have escalated to this level. Previously, when the president of Jubbaland held local elections in defiance of the federal government, authorities in Mogadishu attempted to exert pressure by deploying troops and establishing parallel administrations to challenge the regional leadership. However, these efforts ultimately proved unsuccessful, and the regional administration retained power. Subsequent reconciliation attempts were made but ultimately failed.

The current situation in Baidoa is part of broader tensions that have persisted over the past two years between the federal government and several federal member states. Two of these states had previously rejected constitutional changes introduced by President Mohamud, as well as the electoral model promoted by his administration, significantly straining relations. Initially, South West State aligned with the federal government but remained largely silent on the constitutional amendments. It has since shifted its position and joined the opposition bloc, culminating in the rapid re-election of Laftagareen and the clashes now unfolding in Baidoa.