AU 39th summit and a continent in crisis

The Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, hosted the opening of the 39th African Union Summit against a tense regional backdrop marked by armed conflicts, political instability, and deepening humanitarian and security crises.

Among the high-profile guests was United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, who joined African leaders in calling for accelerated development, sustainable growth, and stronger continental unity. Much of the opening speeches focused on advancing Africa’s development agenda, speaking with “one unified voice” on global issues, and renewing calls for Africa to secure a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

The summit, however, unfolds at a time when several conflicts are escalating rather than moving toward resolution. These crises carry enormous human and economic costs and, in many cases, are becoming increasingly protracted and internationalized.

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, violence has intensified in recent months. Armed groups continue to operate in the eastern regions, resulting in hundreds of deaths and the displacement of tens of thousands of civilians. Regional tensions and external involvement have further complicated peace efforts, highlighting the AU’s struggle to implement lasting conflict-resolution mechanisms.

The situation in Sudan remains even more catastrophic. Nearly three years of brutal conflict have produced one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Millions have been displaced internally and across borders, while widespread human rights violations, including attacks on civilians and restrictions on humanitarian access, have been documented. The conflict has also drawn in foreign actors, reportedly including Colombian mercenaries.

Tensions are also rising elsewhere in the Horn of Africa. Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have deteriorated, increasing the risk of renewed confrontation. Meanwhile, the fragile peace agreement in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region faces mounting strain, with concerns that internal hostilities could re-emerge only a short distance from the AU headquarters.

Furthermore, armed Islamist movements associated with Al-Qaida and ISIS have solidified their presence throughout Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, pushing instability beyond the Sahel into coastal West African countries such as Benin, Togo, and Ghana. Large areas have slipped from state authority, enabling these groups to operate with minimal resistance and intensify cross-border attacks.

A series of military takeovers in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger has significantly altered the region’s political landscape. The ruling juntas are consolidating cooperation through a tougher regional security partnership, strengthening relations with Russia while reducing their reliance on Western governments. This political realignment is reshaping diplomatic and military dynamics across the Sahel.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate. More than 5.7 million people have been forced from their homes, and the number of internally displaced persons is projected to increase by 16% in 2026. Many refugees are moving into neighboring coastal states, placing additional pressure on already vulnerable economies. At the same time, the Sahel has evolved into a strategic arena where domestic armed actors, military regimes, and external powers —including Russia, France, and the United States — vie for leverage and influence.

Beyond active conflicts, Elections have also become flashpoints. Across 2025 and 2026, multiple countries experienced contested and controversial polls.

In Uganda, general elections were marred by reports of intimidation and restrictions on opposition campaigning. In Benin, the exclusion of opposition parties from parliamentary contests triggered accusations of democratic regression.

Ethiopia’s upcoming elections will be taking place amid ethnic tensions and unresolved conflict, while South Sudan prepared for its first major national vote since independence under severe security and political constraints.

Somalia’s national elections, which is scheduled to take place in May, remain in a state of uncertainty and political limbo. The federal government has for years pushed a transition toward a one-person, one-vote system based on universal suffrage. However, these efforts have encountered resistance from opposition leaders and some federal member states, largely due to the absence of broad-based consensus and inclusive political dialogue. Critics argue that the government has not done enough to build the necessary political agreements and institutional frameworks required to implement such a major electoral reform. As a result, disagreements over the appropriate electoral model, whether to maintain the existing indirect clan-based system or shift to direct elections, have deepened divisions among key stakeholders. This prolonged impasse has led to a serious political deadlock and triggered constitutional crisis.

Across these cases, recurring patterns have emerged: military involvement in politics, constitutional disputes over term limits, restrictions on opposition activity, and shrinking civic space.

Taken together, the convergence of armed conflict, humanitarian crises, military coups, and democratic erosion presents a defining challenge for the African Union. While summit speeches stressed unity, development, and Africa’s global representation, the credibility of the continental body will ultimately depend on its ability to respond effectively to the crises unfolding across its member states. The 39th AU Summit thus convenes not only as a diplomatic gathering, but as a critical test of the Union’s capacity to uphold its founding principles of peace, security, and democratic governance at a time when they are under unprecedented strain.