Another round of conflict brewing in Gedo?

Tensions are once again rising in Somalia’s Gedo region following renewed political disputes between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Jubbaland state led by President Ahmed Mohamed Islam, popularly known as Ahmed Madobe.

On October 10, President Ahmed Madobe chaired a Jubbaland regional cabinet meeting in Kismayo. According to an official statement posted on the Jubbaland State House X (formerly Twitter) account, the cabinet discussed “security issues and the overall political situation in the country.”

The statement accused the Federal Government of engaging in “illegal interference” in Jubbaland territories, particularly in Gedo region, warning that “such actions could precipitate renewed conflicts and clashes, potentially resulting in significant harm.”

Just hours later, nearly 40 Members of Parliament from Jubaland - drawn from both Houses of the Federal Parliament - issued a joint press statement strongly criticizing President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and warning him against “interfering” in Jubaland’s internal affairs.

The MPs accused President Mohamud of pursuing “reckless ambitions” aimed at undermining Somalia’s federal system and destabilizing the Jubaland administration. “We have been closely monitoring confidential information regarding the reckless ambitions of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, whose term is nearing its end,” the statement read. “These ambitions aim to undermine the federal system of governance and destabilize the administration of the Jubaland Government.”

The MPs recalled earlier tensions between the two leaders, noting that Mahmoud’s “interference” with Jubaland dates back to his first term (2012–2017). During that period, his administration “launched military offensives” in Jubaland areas - operations that reportedly caused mass displacement, deaths, and injuries, while “diverting resources from the fight against Al-Shabaab.”

The latest statements came shortly after highly anticipated talks between President Mohamud and Ahmed Madobe collapsed last week. President Mohamud had traveled to Kismayo in an effort to repair relations with the regional leader, but the discussions ended without any breakthrough. Tensions between the two have remained high since Madobe’s re-election in October 2024, which the Federal Government deemed “illegal.” Madobe has governed Jubbaland since its formation, and the disputed election triggered a bitter standoff, with both sides issuing arrest warrants and accusing one another of treason and other serious offenses.

The disagreement later escalated into armed clashes across Gedo, a region officially part of Jubaland but still deeply contested due to long-standing clan grievances against Kismayo’s leadership. Fighting has repeatedly erupted in Beled-Hawo, a border town and one of the largest towns in Gedo, as well as in surrounding districts. Federal forces currently maintain control of Beled-Hawo

For some time, the Federal Government has been accused of attempting to establish a parallel administration in Gedo, a move critics say is designed to weaken Jubbaland’s authority and consolidate federal influence in the state.

On October 7 after the collapse of Kismayo talks between Mahmoud and Madobe, Mursal Khalif - member of Parliament from Jubbaland, member of the Defense Committee, and chairman of the Bicameral Parliamentary Committee on Friendship with the United States - criticized President Mohamud’s recent maneuvers. “Instead of uniting the nation against Al-Shabaab, which attacked NISA {Somali national intelligence agency} in Mogadishu few days ago, President Hassan Sheikh is s on a risky plan to wreak havoc in Jubbaland.” Khalif said adding that the “plan of a parallel Jubbaland State in Gedo is a respite for Al-Shabaab as it diverts resources away from war on terror.”

With national elections expected in 2026 and key constitutional amendments still unresolved, Mogadishu faces yet another test of its fragile and often hotly contested electoral system. The collapse of talks between President Mahmoud and Jubbaland leader Ahmed Madobe, coupled with ongoing disputes over the electoral framework, risks turning Gedo once again into a flashpoint for political and military confrontation. Unless political settlements are reached on the contested issues surrounding the electoral roadmap and constitutional reform, Gedo could soon reemerge as the epicenter of Somalia’s next major political crisis.