All roads lead to Halane

After more than a year of back-and-forth consultations, negotiations, and political meetings between Somalia’s federal government, regional state leaders, and opposition blocs, no breakthrough has been achieved on the country’s most divisive political issues: the constitutional amendments introduced by the current administration, approved by parliament, and signed into law by incumbent President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, but rejected by key federal member states and opposition groups, and the electoral roadmap, which has remained in limbo.

The prolonged deadlock has effectively paralysed the country, leaving the country in a constitutional and political vacuum over the past two years. Despite repeated National Consultative Council meetings, no consensus has emerged on the constitutional amendments, the structure of the presidential and parliamentary elections, or the broader power-sharing arrangement between Mogadishu and the federal member states.

Just last week, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud invited opposition leaders for another round of consultations ahead of the end of his current term. However, the proposed talks failed to materialise. Instead, opposition groups organised demonstrations in the capital, accusing the federal government of “unlawful land grabs” and the “politicisation of state security.”

In response, the government deployed security forces around the residences of several prominent opposition figures, including former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. The security deployment disrupted the planned protests and led to the postponement of the consultation meeting that had been scheduled for May 10. One person was reportedly killed and dozens of others injured during the unrest.

The government portrayed the disruption of the opposition leaders’ planned protest as a major success, while accusing opposition groups of being supported by hostile foreign actors.

Somalia’s Defence Minister, Ahmed Moalim Fiqi, stated that the opposition campaign relied on “foreign advisers, money sent from abroad, clan-based propaganda, and the beating of the tribalism drum.” He added that after “two weeks of threats and aggressive mobilisation,” the organisers had come to realise their “actual strength” and that the people of Muqdisho had moved beyond “the destructive path of tribalism and manipulation they once suffered from.”

Meanwhile, Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni arrived in Mogadishu on Tuesday. Deni severed relations with the federal government nearly two years ago over the controversial constitutional amendments initiated by Mogadishu. Since then, Puntland has largely boycotted national consultative forums, arguing that the federal government was unilaterally reshaping Somalia’s constitutional framework without broad national consensus.

Deni, who is also viewed as a potential contender in Somalia’s upcoming elections, has remained one of the strongest critics of the current administration’s political direction. His administration formally suspended cooperation with the federal government, deepening the constitutional and political rift between Garowe and Mogadishu.

Another major political stakeholder is Jubbaland President Ahmed Mohamed Islam “Madobe,” whose relationship with the federal government has deteriorated over the past year. Tensions escalated in late 2024 when Jubbaland conducted regional elections in defiance of federal objections. The disputed electoral process triggered clashes between federal forces and Jubbaland regional troops in parts of the region, further straining relations between the two sides.

Although Madobe has not yet arrived in Mogadishu, political observers say his participation, or absence, will be crucial to the success of any new political settlement. Relations between Jubbaland and the federal government have remained effectively frozen for more than a year.

Reports emerged today that fresh negotiations brokered by members of the international community are expected to take place inside the heavily fortified Halane compound in Mogadishu. The talks are expected to bring together opposition leaders and representatives of the federal government under international observation.

For many Somalis, the symbolism is striking: after years of Somali-led negotiations failing to produce results, all roads once again appear to lead to Halane, the diplomatic enclave that hosts the United Nations, Western embassies, and international agencies.

Yet the role of the international community in Somalia’s state-building process has also evolved in recent years. Compared to previous political crises, international actors have appeared far less willing to directly intervene or impose political settlements. Their engagement during the current constitutional and electoral deadlock has been noticeably restrained, reflecting broader fatigue among international partners.

This changing posture was made clear in an exclusive interview with Dawan Africa, where U.S. Chargé d’Affaires to Somalia Justin Davis noted that Washington has been engaging both the Federal Government of Somalia and opposition leaders in an effort to better understand the country’s escalating political tensions. However, Davis stressed that the United States is not playing a direct mediating role.

“The United States is neither hosting nor leading mediations,” Davis said, while adding that Washington would welcome the opportunity to observe discussions between Somali stakeholders. He stressed that Somalia’s political future “is in the hands of the Somali people and its leaders.”

Davis reiterated that the longstanding U.S. position on Somalia’s political process remains unchanged: Somalis must determine their own electoral model, timelines, and leadership selection mechanisms without external dictates. He stressed that the United States would not prescribe how elections should be conducted.

The remarks underline a broader reality confronting Somalia’s political elite: despite expectations for international involvement, external actors appear increasingly reluctant to take ownership of Somalia’s unresolved political disputes. That leaves Somali leaders facing growing pressure to negotiate a domestic political settlement.

In the meantime, with tensions rising and trust collapsing between the opposition and the current government, which continues to push ahead with its electoral agenda, Halane may once again become the last remaining venue where Somalia’s competing leaders can still sit across the same table.