Aid cuts and failed rains push Somalia toward major hunger emergency

A severe hunger crisis is tightening its grip on Somalia, with millions facing emergency levels of food insecurity as a critical rainy season fails and lifesaving humanitarian funding continues to shrink, according to a new early warning report.

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) projects that from October 2025 to at least May 2026, widespread “Crisis” and “Emergency” conditions — IPC Phases 3 and 4 (international classifications for high food insecurity) — will persist across the country. The situation is expected to worsen further in early 2026.

The crisis is being driven by the forecasted failure of the October–December Deyr rains, which are expected to be far below normal due to the combined effects of La Niña (a climate pattern that reduces rainfall in East Africa) and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (a weather condition that also brings drier-than-normal conditions). This marks yet another in a series of poor rainy seasons, especially in central and northern Somalia, leaving soils extremely dry and water sources nearly depleted.

In farming areas, the outlook is equally bleak. The report anticipates that the main Deyr harvest will fall 25–30% below average for sorghum and 22–25% below average for maize. This will leave families with almost no food stocks and reduce agricultural labor opportunities, a crucial income source for many Somali households.

According to FEWS NET, a 74% cut in humanitarian funding means food assistance reached only 5–10% of people in need. Aid levels are expected to remain “severely reduced” through mid-2026.

The report warns that internally displaced persons (IDPs), people forced to flee their homes due to conflict or climate shocks, are among the most vulnerable. An estimated 3.5 million Somalis are displaced, living in settlements with few assets and limited ways to earn income. IDP sites in Xudur and Baidoa are already likely in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), and similar conditions are expected to spread to areas such as Dhusamareb and Gaalkacyo by early 2026.

FEWS NET’s most likely scenario is a significant expansion of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions from February to May 2026. Key livelihood zones, including the Addun Pastoral and Bay, Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral areas (regions where families depend heavily on livestock or small-scale farming), are expected to deteriorate into this severe phase. While the report does not forecast Famine (IPC Phase 5), it warns that another failed rainy season in early 2026 could push the most vulnerable into an even worse catastrophe.

Parts of the country have already been officially declared as facing a drought crisis. Puntland recently issued an urgent plea for humanitarian assistance, reporting a devastating drought affecting nearly one million residents. Authorities described the situation as “unprecedented,” noting the failure of four consecutive rainy seasons, which has left the region extremely dry for two years.

According to Puntland officials, about 940,000 people are facing severe shortages of food and water, while 130,000 of them urgently need immediate emergency assistance. The drought has also caused more than 310,000 children under the age of five to suffer from malnutrition. In addition, around 360,000 people have been displaced, most of them pastoralists who were forced to leave their homes after losing their livestock and access to water.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) projected that 4.4 million people will face high levels of acute food insecurity between October and December 2025. This includes 624,000 people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), driven by prolonged drought, poor seasonal rains, and limited funding.

The nutrition situation is also alarming, with 1.85 million children under five expected to suffer from acute malnutrition between August 2025 and July 2026 — including 421,000 at risk of Severe Acute Malnutrition.

Despite rising needs, humanitarian funding remains critically low. As of 31 October 2025, only 21.7% of the required US$1.42 billion for the Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan had been received. Due to this funding shortage, OCHA reports that Food assistance has declined, falling from 1.1 million people reached in August to just 350,000 in November. At the same time, more than 200 health facilities have been forced to shut down because of severe funding shortages.