Africa emerges as epicenter of global jihadist threat, U.S. intelligence report says

Africa has become the primary hub for the expansion of global jihadist groups, with Somalia at the forefront of a persistent and evolving insurgent threat, according to the U.S. intelligence community’s 2026 Annual Threat Assessment.

The report warns that affiliates of al-Qa‘ida and Islamic State have shifted the center of their operations to African conflict zones, exploiting weak governance, local instability, and ungoverned spaces to expand their reach and capabilities.

“Growth of these groups during the last five years has occurred primarily in local conflicts in Africa,” the assessment states, noting that their “largest and most violent affiliates” are now active across the continent.

The findings mark a significant shift in the global terrorism landscape, with Africa supplanting parts of the Middle East as the most dynamic environment for jihadist expansion. Across the Sahel and West Africa, al-Qa‘ida- and ISIS-linked groups have intensified attacks and expanded their areas of operation, in some cases moving closer to major cities. In Mali, for example, al-Qa‘ida affiliates have imposed economic blockades on key urban centers.

But it is Somalia that stands out as one of the most strategically significant battlegrounds. The report highlights continued gains by al-Shabaab, an al-Qa‘ida affiliate that has waged a long-running insurgency against the Somalia’s government. Over the past year, the group has pushed closer to Mogadishu, the capital, and stepped up indirect-fire attacks in and around the city.

Al-Shabaab “continues to coordinate media with other parts of al-Qa‘ida and has provided funding” to allied groups, including al-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen, the report says. Those links highlight Somalia’s role as a node in a broader transnational network that connects militant activity across Africa and the Middle East. “U.S. military operations in Somalia have hindered ISIS-Somalia’s ability to pursue attacks,” the report notes, but adds that ISIS affiliates elsewhere in Africa have increased the intensity of their operations and expanded their reach.

The persistence of insurgent groups in Somalia is deeply rooted in long-standing structural challenges. The country continues to struggle with weak central governance and security challenges. These conditions create an environment in which militant organizations can recruit, operate, and maintain influence with relative ease. Limited state capacity and uneven service delivery further erode public trust, allowing non-state actors to fill governance gaps in certain areas.

In recent years, Somalia has also been affected by a political and constitutional crisis that has significantly undermined efforts to combat Al-Shabaab. When the current administration came to power, it launched large-scale military offensives that initially yielded important gains. The Somali National Army, supported by local militias and international partners, succeeded in capturing several strategic cities across southern and central Somalia. However, the SNA experienced notable setbacks as Al-Shabaab launched an aggressive counteroffensive, reclaiming key territories, particularly in central regions.

At the same time, internal political divisions have intensified, further complicating the fight against insurgency. A constitutional dispute has emerged between the federal government and several federal member states, including Puntland, Jubbaland, and Southwest State, leading them to sever or suspend cooperation with the central authorities. The disagreements, centered on constitutional amendments and the electoral roadmap, have weakened national unity. This fragmentation has stalled coordinated security operations against Al-Shabaab and diverted attention away from counterterrorism priorities. Consequently, Somalia now faces an unprecedented constitutional crisis that risks reversing hard-won security gains and prolonging instability across the country.

More broadly, the intelligence assessment suggests that extremist groups in Africa are evolving beyond traditional insurgencies. Many now operate as hybrid organizations that combine military activity with governance functions, including taxation, economic control, and influence over local populations.

That evolution raises concerns that parts of Africa could become long-term sanctuaries for jihadist groups, allowing them to sustain operations and potentially project threats beyond the continent.

Although most attacks remain locally focused, the report warns that the integration of African affiliates into global networks increases the risk of external plotting or the inspiration of attacks abroad.

The findings come as the global security environment grows more complex, with rising conflict levels and intensifying competition among major powers. Yet, in Africa, the report suggests that instability is driven less by geopolitical rivalry and more by internal vulnerabilities that have proven difficult to address.