Afar voices turn toward Israel

Ynet, an Israel-based media outlet, has reported that leaders and figures from the Afar ethnic group in the Horn of Africa have increasingly begun to raise the idea of establishing contact with Israel and seeking political and security support, against the backdrop of what they describe as a mix of “regional threats.” These include the activities of Iran-backed Houthi forces on the opposite shore of the Red Sea, alongside allegations of abuses and restrictions faced by Afar communities inside Eritrea.

The Afar are concentrated in areas adjacent to the Red Sea, spanning northeastern Ethiopia, southeastern Eritrea, and Djibouti — a geography that gives them a presence along some of the world’s most sensitive maritime routes, near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden. These areas are historically associated with the “Dankalia/Danakil” region and are considered part of a cross-border economic and social space with deep interconnections.

According to the report discussion of the “Houthi threat” within Afar circles intensified after the internationally recognized Yemeni government announced in February 2025 that it had released testimony from an Eritrean Afar man identified as Ali Ahmed Ya‘di. In the testimony, he spoke about recruitment methods and the formation of Houthi-linked cells in the Horn of Africa, as well as promises — he said were made in Iran’s name — regarding support for the Afar. The substance of this testimony and its on-the-ground details could not be independently verified.

Ynet reported that a tribal/community Afar conference was held in Ethiopia between December 28 and 30, 2025, with the participation of Afar delegations and figures arriving from Eritrea, alongside representatives from Djibouti and Ethiopia, as well as activists, media professionals, and human rights defenders. According to the same account, the conference aimed to unify positions and enhance coordination “against the ruling regime” in Eritrea, led by the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), the country’s sole ruling party.

Ynet quoted participants and Afar sources as accusing the Eritrean government of committing abuses that include arbitrary arrests, forced displacement, and restrictions on livelihoods in coastal Afar areas. Such allegations are recurrent in international human rights reports on the general state of freedoms in Eritrea. The Israeli report did not include an official response from Asmara addressing claims specifically related to the Afar.

From the Israeli perspective, the Ynet report cited an unnamed Afar source who linked what he described as the expansion of “the Iran axis” in the Red Sea to the fragility of the situation in Eritrea’s Dankalia region, arguing that the issue was no longer merely local but had taken on regional and international dimensions. The source suggested that Israel, given its security experience in the Red Sea and its international relations, could — if it chose — play a role beyond diplomacy, potentially extending to support for de facto “protection arrangements” for local communities.

These developments come amid multiple indicators of growing links between the Houthis and certain armed actors and smuggling networks in the Horn of Africa. In an analysis issued by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa), UN monitors were cited as describing the relationship between the Houthis and Somalia’s Al-Shabaab as “opportunistic/transactional.” The analysis also pointed to meetings in 2024 during which Al-Shabaab leadership reportedly requested “advanced weapons and training” from the Houthis, amid rising concerns about the transfer of expertise and technologies — including drones — to Horn of Africa theaters.

At the broader diplomatic level, discussion of a potential Afar rapprochement with Israel falls within a wider wave of Israeli engagement with the Horn of Africa. This week, Israel described Ethiopia as a long-term strategic partner following talks in Jerusalem between Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar and Ethiopian State Minister for Foreign Affairs Hadera Abera Admassu.

Observers say that local actors’ search for “external umbrellas” reflects, on the one hand, intensifying polarization around the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb as arenas of international and regional competition, and on the other, the fragility of protection and security arrangements in border areas where long-standing local grievances intersect with new geopolitical calculations. While the Israeli narrative frames the issue as “protecting a threatened minority” in a turbulent regional environment, any shift from informal contacts to declared policies remains contingent on far more complex balances—where considerations of sovereignty, regional reactions, and the limits of translating maritime security into land-based interventions all come into play