Abiy’s re-election bid clouds Ethiopia’s fragile future

Ethiopia’s 7th General Election is scheduled for Monday, June 1, 2026, with voting expected to take place from 6:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. According to the National Election Board of Ethiopia, 50,514,155 people have registered to vote. Of these, more than 5.5 million registered digitally through dedicated apps developed by the NEBE, while the rest registered manually at polling stations. Reports also put the gender breakdown at roughly 54% men and 46% women.

NEBE has said the body established more than 52,000 polling stations nationwide and deployed nearly 200,000 election workers and officials for election-day operations. Earlier registration work involved more than 187,000 registration officials. Voter registration began on March 7, 2026, and ended on April 22, 2026, after an extension, with both digital and in-person systems used.

Earlier this year, the Ethiopian opposition parties said the country’s forthcoming national election is unlikely to meet standards of “inclusiveness, fairness, credibility, or democracy” under the existing candidate registration process. In a joint statement, they argued that procedures introduced by the NEBE lacked “openness and were implemented without sufficient consultation with political parties.” They raised concerns over the digital registration system, saying party leaders were not given “adequate time to review, test, or approve it,” while requirements such as birth certificates, house plans, email addresses, and rapid online verification disadvantaged candidates, particularly those in rural areas with limited access to technology.

The parties also accused authorities of applying electoral rules unevenly and creating conditions that weakened opposition participation before voting begins. They cited concerns over additional candidate registration opportunities allegedly granted to the ruling party after the former Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region was divided, as well as a system feature allowing candidates to withdraw without party approval, which they said could expose opposition figures to pressure or inducement.

This week, the African Union has deployed a 73-member election observation mission to Ethiopia, saying the team would assess the vote against regional and international standards for democratic elections.

The mission, sent at the invitation of Ethiopia’s government, is led by former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and includes short-term observers from 37 African countries, the AU said in a statement.

“The observers will be deployed across various regions of Ethiopia to observe election-day procedures, including the opening of polls, voting, closing, and counting and tabulation at polling stations,” the AU said.

The observer team includes ambassadors accredited to the AU, election officials, civil society representatives, election experts, human rights specialists, gender and media experts, and youth representatives. Women make up 61% of the mission, according to the statement. The mission will issue a preliminary statement on its findings at a press conference in Addis Ababa on June 3, the AU said. A final report is expected within two months of the elections.

Similarly, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development has deployed a 26-member election observation mission, the regional bloc said in a statement.

The mission is led by former Ugandan Vice President Speciosa Wandira-Kazibwe and deputised by Mohamed Ali Houmed, a former president of Djibouti’s National Assembly, IGAD said.

“The observers will be deployed across most of the National Regional States of Ethiopia, including the Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa city administrations, to observe election-day procedures, including the opening of the polls, voting, closing, and counting at polling stations,” IGAD said.

IGAD said the mission would engage with state and non-state electoral stakeholders, including the National Election Board, the Human Rights Commission, federal police, political parties, civil society organisations, women’s and youth groups, media, and domestic and international election observers. IGAD added that the mission will release a preliminary statement on its findings at a press conference at the Skylight Hotel in Addis Ababa on June 3. A final report will be issued after the National Election Board of Ethiopia announces the final election results.

However, the election is taking place at a time when the country is facing widespread insecurity, with the government’s control over security in large parts of the country appearing to weaken. Security and access remain among the biggest challenges ahead of the vote. Voting will not be held in Tigray, while the electoral process will also be suspended in at least eight constituencies in Amhara because of insecurity.

The situation in Tigray, in northern Ethiopia, remains particularly fragile. The region is still recovering from the devastating two-year war between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Although the conflict formally ended with a peace agreement, tensions between Addis Ababa and the TPLF have continued to grow. The TPLF has also been removed from the list of registered political parties.

Relations between the federal government and Tigray’s political leadership have become increasingly strained. Recently, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed extended the mandate of the interim administration led by General Tadesse Werede. In response, the TPLF reinstated its pre-war council and effectively elected Debretsion Gebremichael as its president.

The security situation in Amhara is also deteriorating. Federal forces have been battling the ethnic nationalist Fano militia, which has openly rejected the election. Fighting, arrests, and military operations have continued across parts of the region. There have also been reports of air and drone strikes by federal forces, adding to fears that insecurity could prevent many communities from taking part in the vote.

In Oromia, the region where the prime minister is from, the Oromo Liberation Army said this week that it had imposed a ban on transport and movement across Ethiopia’s Oromia region until June 4, accusing Abiy Ahmed’s government of pressing ahead with what it called a sham election.

The OLA said no vehicles, commercial traffic, or unauthorised travel would be allowed in Oromia during the period, with the exception of designated ambulances operating under humanitarian protocols. The group also advised diplomats in the capital, Addis Ababa, to suspend travel to or within Oromia for the week.

The OLA accused Abiy’s government of staging an election while the country remained affected by civil conflict and said major political parties were refusing to participate. It also alleged that the institutional framework for the vote remained unchanged and that parliamentary seats had already been allocated before ballots were cast.

“The so-called election he is pressing ahead with is not merely a sham, it is a political crime,” the statement said.

Amid the ongoing insecurity crisis across the country, the election has been largely dominated by the Prosperity Party. With no strong or legitimate opposition able to mount a serious challenge, it is widely expected that the Prosperity Party will win by a landslide. However, there remains growing concern about the country’s political direction under Abiy Ahmed, who has sought to reshape Ethiopia around his own image. Nevertheless, the post-election period remains deeply uncertain. The situation in northern Ethiopia continues to teeter on the edge of further instability, while insecurity in the Amhara and Oromia regions lingers in the background of the election. As a result, although the PP is projected to secure a landslide victory, Ethiopia’s broader political and security future hangs in the balance.