Abiy says Tigray provocations risk renewed war

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has accused forces in the northern Tigray region of carrying out daily provocations that he said could trigger renewed war, while defending the 2022 Pretoria Agreement that ended two years of conflict between the federal government and Tigrayan forces.

Addressing lawmakers in parliament, Abiy said the Pretoria Agreement had brought “many benefits” but had also angered groups he described as dissatisfied with the deal. “Currently, forces in Tigray are carrying out daily provocations that could trigger new conflicts and renewed war,” Abiy said.

He said the most concerning issue was the alleged forced recruitment of Tigrayan youths to fight in Sudan’s war, adding that young people were dying in a conflict they “neither understand nor have any connection to.”

“The people of Tigray are not the creators of the problem but rather the ones bearing its consequences,” Abiy said.

His comments come as Sudan’s war increasingly intersects with Ethiopia’s internal security concerns. Sudan’s army-led authorities have accused Ethiopia of supporting the Rapid Support Forces, including allegations that Ethiopian territory has been used for training, logistics and drone operations. Sudanese officials have also alleged that drone attacks on Khartoum International Airport and other military sites were launched from Ethiopia with support from the United Arab Emirates. Ethiopia and the UAE have denied the accusations.

Ethiopia has responded by accusing Sudan’s army and military-led government of supporting “anti-Ethiopian forces,” including what Addis Ababa has described as TPLF-linked “mercenaries.” Ethiopian officials have said Sudanese territory is being used by groups hostile to Ethiopia.

Abiy’s remarks also come amid renewed tension over the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, signed in South Africa in November 2022 to halt a war that researchers say killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions.

The prime minister defended the agreement as a major peace initiative, saying it had produced tangible results. He cited the establishment of Tigray’s interim administration, the demobilisation of more than 60,000 combatants through a disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration programme, and the release of prisoners and detainees as key achievements. Abiy said the federal government negotiated with Tigrayan forces from a position of military strength but still chose peace. He said Addis Ababa had also shown its commitment by supporting armed groups and communities that had been left in difficult conditions after the war.

Tensions in Tigray have risen in recent months amid disputes over the status of the interim administration, the implementation of the Pretoria deal and the role of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Abiy came to power in 2018. The TPLF has previously accused the federal government of violating the agreement.

Last month, two senior Ethiopian officials warned that the worsening political and security situation in northern Ethiopia could push the country toward another major conflict. Ridwan Hussein, Director General of Ethiopia’s National Intelligence and Security Service, and Getachew Reda, a senior adviser on East African affairs to Prime Minister Abiy, accused “hardline elements” within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front of abandoning the Pretoria peace agreement.

The two officials said the faction had undermined Tigray’s interim regional administration, established a rival authority, expanded military recruitment and training, and sidelined leaders who support the peace process.

They also accused Eritrea of encouraging renewed instability by backing anti-peace forces and linking TPLF hardliners with other armed groups. Their claims reflect a broader deterioration in relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara, former allies during the Tigray war. Ethiopia has made similar accusations since last year, including claims that Eritrea is working with elements of the TPLF and factions of the Amhara nationalist Fano movement under what Ethiopian officials describe as the “Tsimdo” initiative. Eritrea has denied related allegations, including claims that it has occupied Ethiopian territory.

Tensions inside Tigray have also deepened as disputes over the Pretoria Agreement remain unresolved. The political crisis intensified after Ethiopia’s election board revoked the TPLF’s legal status, Tigray was excluded from the recent general election, and the federal government extended the mandate of Tigray’s interim administration. In response, the TPLF restored the pre-war regional council and named a new regional president, creating a rival political structure.

Tigray is also facing a dangerous convergence of political fragmentation and military mobilisation. Reported drone strikes in the region, including attacks earlier this year and another strike near Sheraro in northwestern Tigray, have revived memories of the 2020–2022 war and raised fears that even a limited military incident could escalate quickly.

The political pressure on the TPLF is also increasing. The party has lost its formal legal status, and is under growing international scrutiny. The United States has imposed targeted visa restrictions on individuals it says are undermining peace in Tigray, focusing on TPLF “hardliners” and their immediate family members.

At the same time, rights groups have accused Tigray’s regional authorities of forced recruitment and coercive mobilisation, including allegations that civilians and boys as young as 15 have been unlawfully recruited. Human Rights Watch has also criticised a new Tigray security and mobilisation proclamation, saying it gives authorities sweeping powers to compel military service and punish dissent.

These developments point to a peace under mounting strain. The Pretoria Agreement stopped the main battlefield fighting, but it has not resolved the core disputes over political authority, disarmament, accountability and the future of TPLF and its armed forces. With the prime minister Abiy warning of provocations, TPLF leaders accusing Addis Ababa of preparing for war, and Sudan and Eritrea increasingly drawn into Ethiopia’s security calculations, the fear is that Tigray could again become the centre of a wider conflict in the region.